²úÒµ½á¹¹Óë¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹¹ØϵµÄʵ֤Ñо¿ ÏÂÔر¾ÎÄ

²úÒµ½á¹¹Óë¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹¹ØϵµÄʵ֤Ñо¿

¸Ä¸ï¿ª·ÅÒÔÀ´£¬ÎÒ¹úÓɼƻ®¾­¼ÃÏòÊг¡¾­¼Ãת±ä£¬40¶àÄêÀ´£¬È«¹úµÄ¾­¼Ã×ÜÁ¿²»¶ÏÉÏÉý£¬¾­¼Ã½á¹¹³ÖÐøÓÅ»¯£¬³É¼¨ì³È»¡£ËæÖ®¶øÀ´£¬ÎÒ¹úµÄ²úÒµ½á¹¹Óë¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹Ò²·¢ÉúÁËÉî¿Ìת±ä¡£²úÒµ½á¹¹Óë¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹ÁªÏµ½ôÃÜ£¬¶¼ÊǾ­¼Ã½á¹¹ÖеÄÖØÒª×é³É²¿·Ö¡£²úÒµ½á¹¹µÄÓÅ»¯Éý¼¶±ØÈ»»áÒýÖÂÏÖ´æÀͶ¯Á¦ÊÊʱÕû¸Ä£¬¼Ì¶ø½«Ó°Ï첨¶¯µ½¾ÍÒµ·½Ãæ¡£Ö»ÓкÏÀíЭµ÷ºÃ²úÒµ½á¹¹Óë¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹µÄת±ä£¬²ÅÄܱ£Ö¤¹úÃñ¾­¼ÃµÄ½¡¿µ¿ìËÙÔö³¤£¬²ÅÄÜʵÏÖÉç»áµÄ³ÖÐø½ø²½ºÍÃñÉúÓëÉç

[1]

»áµÄÎȶ¨¡£²úÒµ½á¹¹Óë¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹µÄЭµ÷·¢Õ¹ÊǾ­¼ÃʵÏÖÁ¼ÐÔÑ­»·µÄ±ØÈ»Ìõ¼þ¡£

½­ËÕÊ¡µØ´¦³¤Èý½ÇµØ´ø£¬µØÀíÓÅÊÆÃ÷ÏÔ£¬¸Ä¸ï¿ª·Å40ÄêÒÔÀ´£¬¾­¼ÃµÃµ½Ñ¸ÃÍÇÒ³ÖÐøµÄ·¢Õ¹¡£×÷ΪÖйúµÄ¾­¼ÃÓëÈË¿Ú´óÊ¡£¬Æä²úÒµ½á¹¹ºÍ¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹µÄЭµ÷·¢Õ¹¾ÍÏÔµÃÓÈÆäÖØÒª¡£ÎªÁ˱£Ö¤½­ËÕÊ¡¾­¼Ã³ÖÐø½¡¿µÎȶ¨·¢Õ¹£¬±¾ÎÄͨ¹ýÑо¿½­ËÕÊ¡²úÒµ½á¹¹Óë¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹µÄ·¢Õ¹×´¿ö£¬·ÖÎö¶þÕßÊÇ·ñʵÏÖЭµ÷·¢Õ¹¡£

2.½­ËÕÊ¡²úÒµ½á¹¹Óë¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹µÄÑݱä 2.1½­ËÕÊ¡²úÒµ½á¹¹µÄÑݱä

60.050.040.030.020.010.00.019781983198819931998µÚ¶þ²úÒµ20032008µÚÈý²úÒµ20132018µÚÒ»²úÒµ ͼ 1 1978-2018Äê½­ËÕÊ¡Èý´Î²úÒµ²úÒµ½á¹¹±ÈÖر仯£¨%£©

½­ËÕÊ¡´¦ÓÚ³¤Èý½Ç¾­¼Ã´ø£¬ËùÓеؼ¶ÊоùõÒÉíÈ«¹ú°ÙÇ¿£¬¾­¼Ã·¢Õ¹Ñ¸ËÙ¡£2017Äê½­ËÕÊ¡µØÇøÉú²ú×ÜÖµ´ïµ½8.6ÍòÒÚÔª¡£ÓÉͼ 1¿ÉµÃ£¬µÚÒ»²úÒµ±ÈÖسÖÐøϽµ£¬µÚÈý²úÒµ±ÈÖسÖÐøÉÏÉý£¬µÚ¶þ²úÒµ±ÈÖØ´¦ÓÚ½ÏƽÎÈˮƽ£¬µ«½üÄêÀ´ÓÐϽµÇ÷ÊÆ¡£1989Ä꣬½­ËÕÊ¡µÚÈý²úÒµ±ÈÖØÊ״γ¬Ô½µÚÒ»²úÒµ±ÈÖØ£¬²úÒµ½á¹¹ÓɹýÈ¥µÄ¡°¶þ¡¢Ò»¡¢Èý¡±½á¹¹×ª»»Îª¡°¶þ¡¢Èý¡¢Ò»¡±½á¹¹¡£2015Ä꣬½­ËÕÊ¡µÚÈý²úÒµ±ÈÖØÊ״γ¬Ô½µÚ¶þ²úÒµ±ÈÖØ£¬²úÒµ½á¹¹ÓɹýÈ¥µÄ¡°¶þ¡¢Èý¡¢Ò»¡±½á¹¹×ª»»ÎªÏÖÔڵġ°Èý¡¢¶þ¡¢Ò»¡±½á¹¹¡£2016Ä꣬½­ËÕÊ¡µÚÈý²úÒµ±ÈÖس¬Ô½50%£¬Í»Æƽ­ËÕÊ¡×ܲúÖµµÄÒ»°ë£¬Èý¡¢¶þ²úÒµÕ¼Ö÷µ¼µØλ¡£ 2.2½­ËÕÊ¡¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹µÄÑݱä

80.070.060.050.040.030.020.010.00.0197819911996µÚÒ»²úÒµ2001µÚ¶þ²úÒµ20062011µÚÈý²úÒµ2016 ͼ 2 1978-2018Äê½­ËÕÊ¡Èý´Î²úÒµ¾ÍÒµÈËÔ±±ÈÖر仯£¨%£©

21ÊÀ¼ÍÇ°£¬ÎÒ¹ú´óÁ¿ÀͶ¯Á¦´ÓʵÚÒ»²úÒµ£¬µÚÒ»²úÒµÀͶ¯Á¦¹ýÊ£¡£Ëæ×ÅÎÒ¹ú¶ÔµÚ¶þ¡¢Èý²úÒµµÄ´óÁ¦·¢Õ¹£¬µÚÒ»²úÒµÀͶ¯Á¦ÂýÂýÏò¶þ¡¢Èý²úҵתÒÆ¡£ÓÉͼ 2Ëùʾ£¬2004Ä꣬µÚ¶þ²úÒµ¾ÍÒµÈËÔ±±ÈÖس¬Ô½µÚÒ»²úÒµ¾ÍÒµÈËÔ±±ÈÖØ£¬2005Ä꣬µÚÈý²úÒµ¾ÍÒµÈËÔ±±ÈÖس¬Ô½µÚÒ»²úÒµ¾ÍÒµÈËÔ±±ÈÖØ£¬¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹ÓÉ¡°Ò»¡¢¶þ¡¢Èý¡±½á¹¹×ª»»Îª¡°¶þ¡¢Èý¡¢Ò»¡±½á¹¹£¬µÚÈý²úÒµÀͶ¯Á¦½ôȱ¡£

3. ½­ËÕÊ¡²úÒµ½á¹¹Óë¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹µÄʵ֤·ÖÎö 3.1Êý¾ÝÀ´Ô´Óë´¦Àí

±¾ÎIJÉÓý­ËÕÊ¡µÚ1978ÄêÖÁ2017ÄêµÄÈý´Î²úÒµ²úÖµÈý´Î²úÒµµÄ¾ÍÒµÈËÊýµÈÊý¾Ý£¬Êý¾Ý

GDP2¡¢GDP3·Ö±ð±íʾ½­ËÕÊ¡µÚÒ»²úÒµ¡¢¾ùÀ´Ô´ÓÚ¡¶½­ËÕʡͳ¼ÆÄê¼ø¡ª¡ª2019¡·¡£ÓÃGDP1¡¢

µÚ¶þ²úÒµºÍµÚÈý²úÒµµÄ²úÖµ¡£ÓÃLAB1¡¢LAB2¡¢LAB3·Ö±ð±íʾ½­ËÕÊ¡µÚÒ»²úÒµ¡¢µÚ¶þ²úÒµºÍµÚÈý²úÒµµÄ¾ÍÒµÈËÊý¡£¶Ô½­ËÕÊ¡Ò»¡¢¶þ¡¢Èý²úÒµµÄ²úÖµºÍµÚÒ»¡¢¶þ¡¢Èý²úÒµµÄ¾ÍÒµÈËÊý·Ö±ðÈ¡×ÔÈ»¶ÔÊýÒÔÏû³ýÒì·½²î²¢¼õÉÙÊý¾ÝµÄ²¨¶¯£¬ ¼ÇΪLnGDP1¡¢LnGDP2¡¢LnGDP2ºÍ

LnLAB1¡¢LnLAB2¡¢LnLAB3¡£

3.2¾ÍÒµµ¯ÐÔ·ÖÎö

ΪÁË·ÖÎö¾ÍÒµÄÑÒ׳̶ȣ¬Ñ¡È¡¾ÍÒµµ¯ÐÔÖ¸±ê½øÐкâÁ¿¡£¾ÍÒµµ¯ÐÔÓþÍÒµÈËÊý±ä»¯ÂÊÓë²úÒµ²úÖµ±ä»¯ÂÊÖ®±È±íʾ£¬¼´²úֵÿ±ä»¯Ò»¸ö°Ù·ÖµãËù¶ÔÓ¦µÄ¾ÍÒµÈËÊý±ä»¯µÄ°Ù·Ö±È¡£±ÈֵΪÕýÖµÇÒÊýÖµÔ½´ó£¬ ¾ÍÒµµ¯ÐÔÔ½¸ß£¬¾­¼ÃÔö³¤À­¶¯¾ÍÒµ×÷ÓÃÔ½´ó; ±ÈֵΪ¸ºÖµÇÒ¾ø¶ÔÖµÔ½´ó£¬¶Ô¾ÍÒµ²úÉúµÄ¡°¼·Ñ¹Ð§Ó¦¡±¾ÍÔ½´ó[2]¡£¼ÆË㹫ʽΪ£º

e?dLABi/LABi

dGDPi/GDPiÆäÖУ¬LABi±íʾµÚi²úÒµµÄ¾ÍÒµÈËÊý£¬GDPi±íʾµÚ i ²úÒµµÄ²úÖµ¡£ÓöÔÊýÏßÐÔÄ£ÐÍ

?²âËãe£¬ÁîLABi?AGDPi£¬µÃ£º

LnLABi?LnA??LnGDPi?b0?b1LnGDPi?? £¨15£©

ÆäÖÐb1¾ÍÊǵ¯ÐÔϵÊýe¡£

ʹÓÃ1978¡ª2017Äê½­ËÕÊ¡Èý´Î²úÒµ²úÖµ¼°¾ÍÒµÈËÊýÊý¾Ý£¬²âËã³öÁ˽­ËÕÊ¡Èý´Î²úÒµµÄ¾ÍÒµµ¯ÐÔ£¬½á¹ûÈç±í 1Ëùʾ¡£

±í 1½­ËÕÊ¡Èý´Î²úÒµµÄ¾ÍÒµµ¯ÐÔ£¨1978-2017£©

²úÒµ·ÖÀà µÚÒ»²úÒµ µÚ¶þ²úÒµ µÚÈý²úÒµ

¾ÍÒµµ¯ÐÔϵÊý -0.23691 0.185173 0.271567

±ê×¼²î 0.038751 0.011456 0.009518

tͳ¼ÆÁ¿ -6.11351 16.16367 28.53099

pÖµ 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000

Óɱí 1¿ÉÖª£¬µÚÒ»²úÒµµÄ¾ÍÒµµ¯ÐÔϵÊýΪ-0.23691£¬¼´µÚÒ»²úÒµ²úֵÿÔö¼Ó1%£¬¾ÍÒµÈËÊýϽµ-0.23691%£¬±íÃ÷Ëæ×ŵÚÒ»²úÒµ²úÖµÔö¼Ó£¬µÚÒ»²úÒµ½«ÊͷųöÔ½À´Ô½¶àµÄÀͶ¯Á¦£¬±íÃ÷µÚÒ»²úÒµ²úÖµµÄÔö³¤²¢²»ÓÐÀûÓÚµÚÒ»²úÒµ¾ÍÒµÈËÊýµÄÔö¼Ó¡£¶øµÚ¶þ²úÒµºÍµÚÈý²úÒµµÄ¾ÍÒµµ¯ÐÔϵÊý¶¼ÎªÕý£¬ËµÃ÷µÚ¶þ²úÒµºÍµÚÈý²úÒµµÄ·¢Õ¹¶Ô¾ÍÒµ¾ùÓдٽø×÷Óᣠ3.3½á¹¹Æ«Àë¶ÈºÍÏà¶ÔÀͶ¯Éú²úÂÊ·ÖÎö

½á¹¹Æ«Àë¶ÈºÍÏà¶ÔÀͶ¯Éú²úÂÊÊÇÑо¿²úÒµ½á¹¹Óë¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹Æ«Àë³Ì¶È´óСµÄÖØÒªÖ¸±ê¡£½á¹¹Æ«Àë¶ÈµÄ¼ÆË㹫ʽÊÇ£º

µÚi²úÒµ½á¹¹Æ«Àë¶È?µÚi²úÒµ²úÖµÓë×ܲúÖµÖ®±È-1

¸Ã²úÒµ¾ÍÒµÈËÊýÓë×ܾÍÒµÈËÊýÖ®±ÈÆ«Àë¶ÈΪÁã˵Ã÷²úÒµ½á¹¹ºÍ¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹´¦ÓÚ¾ùºâ״̬£»Æ«Àë¶ÈµÄ¾ø¶ÔÖµÔ½´ó£¬ËµÃ÷²úÒµ½á¹¹Óë¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹Ô½²»¾ùºâ£»Æ«Àë¶ÈµÄ¾ø¶ÔֵԽС£¬ËµÃ÷²úÒµ½á¹¹Óë¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹µÄÔ½¾ùºâ¡£

ÈôÀͶ¯Á¦ÄÜÔÚÈý´Î²úÒµ²¿ÃÅÖÐ×ÔÓɵØתÒÆ£¬¾ÍÄܼ°Ê±µØÂú×ãÈý´Î²úÒµ²¿ÃŶÔÀͶ¯Á¦µÄÐèÇ󣬴ӶøʵÏÖÀͶ¯Á¦×ÊÔ´µÄÓÐЧÅäÖ㬴Ëʱ²úÒµ½á¹¹Óë¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹Ç÷ÓÚ¾ùºâ״̬£¬Èý´Î²úÒµ½á¹¹Æ«Æ«Àë¶ÈÇ÷ÏòÓÚÁã¡£

×ÜÖ®£¬½á¹¹Æ«Àë¶ÈÓëÁãÔ½½Ó½ü£¬²úÒµ½á¹¹Óë¾ÍÒµ½á¹¹Ö®¼äµÄ¹Øϵ¾ÍÔ½ºÏÀí¡£½á¹¹Æ«Àë¶È

[3]

µÄ¾ø¶ÔÖµÔ½´ó£¬·´Ó³Á˾­¼Ã·¢Õ¹¡¢²úÒµ½á¹¹ÑݱäºÍ¾ÍÒµÈË¿ÚµÄתÒÆÔ½²»Ð­µ÷¡£

Ïà¶ÔÀͶ¯Éú²úÂʵļÆË㹫ʽÊÇ£º

µÚi²úÒµÏà¶ÔÀͶ¯Éú²úÂÊ?µÚi²úÒµ²úÖµÓë×ܲúÖµÖ®±È

¸Ã²úÒµ¾ÍÒµÈËÊýÓë×ܾÍÒµÈËÊýÖ®±È[4]

Èô¸ÃÖµ´óÓÚ 1£¬Ôò˵Ã÷¸Ã²úÒµµÄÀͶ¯Éú²úÂʸßÓÚÈ«Éç»áƽ¾ùÖµ£¬·´Ö®ÒàÈ»¡£ÇÒ¸ÃÖµÔ½´ó£¬±íÃ÷²úÒµÀͶ¯Ãܼ¯Ðͳ̶ÈÔ½µÍ£»¸ÃֵԽС£¬±íÃ÷²úÒµµÄÀͶ¯Ãܼ¯Ðͳ̶ÈÔ½¸ß¡£

½­ËÕÊ¡Èý´Î²úÒµ½á¹¹Æ«Àë¶ÈÓëÏà¶ÔÀͶ¯Éú²úÂÊ·ÖÎö½á¹û¼û±í 2£¬¿ÉÖª£º

±í 2½­ËÕÊ¡Èý´Î²úÒµ½á¹¹Æ«Àë¶ÈÓëÏà¶ÔÀͶ¯Éú²úÂÊ£¨1978-2017£© Äê·Ý 1978 1980 1985 1989 1990 1991 ½á¹¹Æ«Àë¶È µÚÒ»²úÒµ -0.732 -0.738 -0.670 -0.721 -0.756 -0.786 µÚ¶þ²úÒµ 2.410 2.549 1.157 1.047 1.466 1.470 µÚÈý²úÒµ 0.357 0.256 -0.149 -0.061 0.046 0.138 0.268 0.262 0.330 0.279 0.244 0.214 Ïà¶ÔÀͶ¯Éú²úÂÊ µÚÒ»²úÒµ µÚ¶þ²úÒµ 3.410 3.549 2.157 2.047 2.466 2.470 µÚÈý²úÒµ 1.357 1.256 0.851 0.939 1.046 1.138