内容摘要

随着我国并购事项日益频繁，科学评估目标企业价值变得尤为重要，更是并购成功与否的核心问题。本文基于深圳宝能收购万科股份的最新案例，通过分析万科集团的经营业绩与财务状况，并结合现金流量折现法定量评估万科集团的内在价值，分析探讨并购收益。结果表明：市场低估万科内在价值，深圳宝能以平均15元/股的价格购得万科近23%的流通股票，直至停牌日成功获取64%资本利得。若市场表现有效，则股价将趋向本文评估值45.78元/股，即深圳宝能将最终获取200%的投资收益。从投资角度而言，深圳宝能并购行为是理性的经济行为。本文研究有望为万科企业中小股东和证券市场上的投资者提供有用的投资信息。

关键词：并购 企业价值评估 现金流量折现法 万科集团

Abstract

In China, as the number of mergers and acquisitions among enterprises increasing, scientific assessment of the value of the target company becomes critically important, which is the core issue of the transaction. Based in latest example of Shenzhen BN acquire the shares of Vanke, through analyzing the operation results and financial condition of Vanke, combining with discounted cash flows method to quantitatively assess the intrinsic value of Vanke Group, this paper tends to analyze and discuss the merger gains. The result shows that: the market is underestimating the intrinsic value of Vanke. Shenzhen BN acquired nearly 23% of the shares at an average of 15 Yuan/share. Until the date of suspension, BN successfully got 64% of capital gains. And if the market was effective, the value of the stock will tend to be the assessed price (45.78 Yuan/share), the Shenzhen BN can eventually get 200% return profit on investment. From the investment point of view, this purchase behavior is rational and profitable. This study is expected to provide useful information to the shareholders and investors on the stock market.

Key words: M&A Valuation DCF Method Vanke

目 录

一、引言............................................................................................................. 1 二、文献综述 ................................................................................................... 1

（一）理论研究及其现状 ................................................................... 1 （二）企业价值评估现金流量法模型 ............................................ 2

1. 股权现金流量法 ......................................................................... 2 2. 实体现金流量法 ......................................................................... 2

三、万科的企业经营状况分析 .................................................................. 4

（一）企业介绍 ...................................................................................... 4 （二）经营分析 ...................................................................................... 4

1. 按业务类型分析 ......................................................................... 5 2. 按区域类型分析 ......................................................................... 5 （三）财务分析 ...................................................................................... 6

1. 纵向比较分析 .............................................................................. 6 2. 横向比较分析 .............................................................................. 7

四、价值评估分析——万科价值几何？ ............................................... 7

（一）权益资本成本的确定............................................................... 7 （二）加权平均资本成本的确定 ..................................................... 8 （三）运用现金流量法折现模型进行估值分析 ......................... 9

1.预测期的确定 ............................................................................... 9 2.估值过程的分析 ........................................................................ 10 3.销售收入增长率的预测 .......................................................... 10 4.其他财务数据的估计 ............................................................... 11 5.公司价值的估算 ........................................................................ 13

五、结论——宝能收购万科是理性决策 ............................................. 14

（一）对评估结果的说明 ................................................................. 14 （二）对宝能集团投资决策的评价............................................... 14 （三）对万科集团股东及其投资者的建议 ................................. 15 参考文献 .......................................................................................................... 16 致谢