Delegates, staff: Hello! in the run-up to the Spring Festival, we held one session of four staff representatives Conference 2013-workshop, full back in 2012, careful analysis of the current situation, discuss 2013 development plans. Here, on behalf of my company 2013 work reports to the General Assembly, for consideration. Pillar I, 2012 back in 2012, XX power companies adhere to the party's 17 great spirit for guidance, comprehensively implement the scientific concept of development, promoting cost-leadership strategy, standards, focus on implementation, lean management, continuously improve, smooth present safety situation of enterprise management, business management and control scientific and standardized, and the dedication of staff, manage a harmonious and democratic atmosphere of the good situation. Main indicators are as follows:-the battery indicator: power generation totaled 7.815 billion kWh, beyond the annual budget implementation capacity of 315 million kWh, an increase of 757 million kWh. Sales totaled 7.425 billion kWh, exceeding sales of 330 million kWh the annual Executive budget, an increase of 729 million kWh. --Security measures: unplanned outages 2.5 times. No personal injury accident occurred, no major accident and above, no major fire accidents without environmental pollution accidents, safety for three consecutive years to maintain stability to good posture. Business financial indicators: total profits of 255 million Yuan, beyond the annual budget of 207 million Yuan, beyond the Datang company index 41.89 million Yuan, an increase of 1.76 million Yuan, FCM assessment at grade four. --Energy: power supply standard coal completing 312.25 g/kWh, down 0.1 g/kWh; integrated auxiliary power consumption ratio in 5.12%, down 0.26%; pollutant emissions performance greatly reduced compared to last year, carbon 0.09 g/kWh, sulfur dioxide 0.104 g/kWh NOx 0.512 g/kWh; dust removaefficiency of more than 99.8%. --Reliability index: equivalent availability factor in 93.47%, increased 7.95% from a year earlier. Equivalent forced outage rate 0.08%, 0.16% reduction over the same period a year earlier. Major achievements: first, we should adhere to the two \ment system\ngthening technological research, strengthen hidden hazards control and intrinsic safety Enterprise construction took new steps. -The two \nt. Focus on promoting the power of the company management system and the application and implementation of the safety loop five-star management system, improve the safety management system, realize the system of safety control. Further regulate security routines, safety supervision and management network role to play to achieve closed-loop. Strengthening the supervision and management of habitual violation of, strengthening the safety supervision of outsourcing contractors. Carried out in spring and autumn of security inspections, flood control and inspection, safety production month, day supervision of production safety and the Olympic Games and other2014“深圳杯”数学建模夏令营A题

计划生育政策调整对人口数量、结构及其影响的研究

人口的数量和结构是影响经济社会发展的重要因素。从20世纪70年代后期以来，我国鼓励晚婚晚育，提倡一对夫妻生育一个孩子。该政策实施30多年来，有效地控制了我国人口的过快增长，对经济发展和人民生活的改善做出了积极的贡献。但另一方面，其负面影响也开始显现。如小学招生人数（1995年以来）、高校报名人数（2009年以来）逐年下降，劳动人口绝对数量开始步入下降通道，人口抚养比的相变时刻即将到来，这些对经济社会健康、可持续发展将产生一系列影响，引起了中央和社会各界的重视。党的十八届三中全会提出了开放单独二孩，今年以来许多省、市、自治区相继出台了具体的政策。政策出台前后各方面人士对开放“单独二孩”的效应有过大量的研究和评论。

人口问题有着悠久的研究历史，也有不少经典的理论和模型。这些理论和模型都依赖生育模式、生育率、死亡率和性别比等多个因素。这些因素与政策及人的观念、社会文化习俗有着紧密的关系，后者又受社会经济发展水平的影响。研究中用到的数据的置信水平也与调查统计有关。

请收集一些典型的研究评论报告，根据每十年一次的全国人口普查数据，建立模型，对报告的假设和某些结论发表自己的独立见解，并针对深圳市或其他某个区域，讨论计划生育新政策（可综合考虑城镇化、延迟退休年龄、养老金统筹等政策因素，但只须选择某一方面作重点讨论）对未来人口数量、结构及其对教育、劳动力供给与就业、养老等方面的影响。

ctivities, comprehensive and tamping Safety Foundation ... Troubleshooting, management mechanism, give full play to role of technical supervision and realization of troubleshooting, management, improved process management. This year completed the boiler lower header leakage, boiler pressure, a major risk management, completed 29 of great risks and 3 General problems of governance. Complete chemistry lab construction, thermal control, and complete the boiler scale integrated management, host shafting vibration of 10 scientific and technological projects, such as. Complete supercritical 630MW on-line simulation system development and application of circulating water MCC standby power transformation, the transformation of desulfurization waste water, the unit water supply system of comprehensive treatment and discharge valve modification of coal mill 5 key technological transformation projects, group health is improved. --Science and technology innovation is furtherincreased. Strengthen the characteristics of supercritical unit major issues, gradually clearing the particularity of supercritical unit and regularity. Developed motor oil time management, switch action times, statistics, coal-aided measurement software, improves the production level of lean management. Increased investment in science and technology, reporting science and technology projects and 14 technical project total cost percentage of the total annual production output of 0.25%. \-scale coal-fired power plant flue gas desulfurization, denitrification complete development and application of key technologies\on the national science and technology progress second prize. 630MW supercritical units optimized control strategies and the 630MW development and application of on-line simulation system for supercritical units, supercritical 600MW units of turbine driven boiler feed pump set of comprehensive treatment of defects Datang technology respectively one or two and third. Meanwhile, information technology achievements, the company was named \na power information technology benchmarking enterprises.\nce has improved further. Modify the inspection standards and standards on a regular basis, standardizing work procedures, checking and inspection project. Deepening the BFS++ system, and implements maintenance information shared. Reorganizing RB logic again, and ensure the success of the RB. Innovating the mechanism of maintenance management, implemented a project manager system. Successful completion of two autonomous maintenance, reliability improved steadily. Implementing two c-level maintenance, project themselves 48.7% and 42.3%, respectively. Accomplish two circulating pumps repair and overhaul of four Mills, maintenance teams to get exercise. Promote the work of energy saving and consumption reducing, complete the unit energy consumption diagnosis, plant water balancetest, 10 energy-saving projects. Second, we should adhere to \he economic benefits of improving, outreachDelegates, staff: Hello! in the run-up to the Spring Festival, we held one session of four staff representatives Conference 2013-workshop, full back in 2012, careful analysis of the current situation, discuss 2013 development plans. Here, on behalf of my company 2013 work reports to the General Assembly, for consideration. Pillar I, 2012 back in 2012, XX power companies adhere to the party's 17 great spirit for guidance, comprehensively implement the scientific concept of development, promoting cost-leadership strategy, standards, focus on implementation, lean management, continuously improve, smooth present safety situation of enterprise management, business management and control scientific and standardized, and the dedication of staff, manage a harmonious and democratic atmosphere of the good situation. Main indicators are as follows:-the battery indicator: power generation totaled 7.815 billion kWh, beyond the annual budget implementation capacity of 315 million kWh, an increase of 757 million kWh. Sales totaled 7.425 billion kWh, exceeding sales of 330 million kWh the annual Executive budget, an increase of 729 million kWh. --Security measures: unplanned outages 2.5 times. No personal injury accident occurred, no major accident and above, no major fire accidents without environmental pollution accidents, safety for three consecutive years to maintain stability to good posture. Business financial indicators: total profits of 255 million Yuan, beyond the annual budget of 207 million Yuan, beyond the Datang company index 41.89 million Yuan, an increase of 1.76 million Yuan, FCM assessment at grade four. --Energy: power supply standard coal completing 312.25 g/kWh, down 0.1 g/kWh; integrated auxiliary power consumption ratio in 5.12%, down 0.26%; pollutant emissions performance greatly reduced compared to last year, carbon 0.09 g/kWh, sulfur dioxide 0.104 g/kWh NOx 0.512 g/kWh; dust removaefficiency of more than 99.8%. --Reliability index: equivalent availability factor in 93.47%, increased 7.95% from a year earlier. Equivalent forced outage rate 0.08%, 0.16% reduction over the same period a year earlier. Major achievements: first, we should adhere to the two \ment system\ngthening technological research, strengthen hidden hazards control and intrinsic safety Enterprise construction took new steps. -The two \nt. Focus on promoting the power of the company management system and the application and implementation of the safety loop five-star management system, improve the safety management system, realize the system of safety control. Further regulate security routines, safety supervision and management network role to play to achieve closed-loop. Strengthening the supervision and management of habitual violation of, strengthening the safety supervision of outsourcing contractors. Carried out in spring and autumn of security inspections, flood control and inspection, safety production month, day supervision of production safety and the Olympic Games and other2014年“深圳杯”数学建模夏令营C题

垃圾焚烧厂的经济补偿问题

“垃圾围城”是世界性难题，在今天的中国显得尤为突出。2012年全国城市生活垃圾清运量达到1.71亿吨，比2010年增长了1300万吨。数据显示，目前全国三分之二以上的城市面临“垃圾围城”问题，垃圾堆放累计侵占土地75万亩。因此，垃圾焚烧正逐步成为中国垃圾处理的主要手段之一。城市垃圾经过分类处理，剔除可回收垃圾和有害垃圾后将剩余垃圾在焚烧炉中焚烧处理，既可避免垃圾填埋侵占大量的土地，又可利用垃圾焚烧产生的能量进行发电等获得可观的经济效益。然而，由于政府监管不力、投资者目光短浅等多方面的原因，致使前些年各地建设的垃圾焚烧电厂在运营中出现了环境污染问题，给垃圾焚烧技术在我国的推广造成了很大阻力，许多城市的新建垃圾焚烧厂选址都出现因居民反对而难以落地的局面。

事实上垃圾焚烧厂对环境的污染风险与建设投资规模、运行监管力度有直接关系。小型垃圾焚烧厂由于没有规模效应，在污染治理方面的投入也会受到影响，致使其污染物排放比较严重，难以达到国家新的排放标准，对环境的危害较大。尤其是目前建厂选址尤为困难，所以国内各大城市目前均倾向于采用新型大型焚烧炉的焚烧厂取代分散的小型焚烧炉的举措。然而大型焚烧厂又存在需要考虑垃圾运输成本与道路建设成本等问题，因此对于不同城市来说，究竟该把大型焚烧厂的建设规模控制在什么水平，这是一个值得研究的课题。在垃圾焚烧厂运行监管方面，目前主要是在垃圾焚烧厂内进行测量监控，缺少从周边环境视角出发的外围动态监控，因而难以形成为民众所信服的全方位垃圾焚烧厂环境监控体系。

深圳市某地点计划建立一个中型的垃圾焚烧厂，计划处理垃圾量1950吨/天（设置三台可处理垃圾650吨/天的焚烧炉，排烟口高度80米，每天24小时运转）。从构建环境动态监控体系、并根据潜在污染风险对周围居民进行合理经济补偿的需求出发，有关部门希望能综合考虑垃圾焚烧厂对周围带来环境污染以及其他危害的多种因素（例如，焚烧炉的污染物排放量、居住点离开垃圾焚烧厂的距离、风力和风向及降雨等气象条件、地形地貌以及建筑物的遮挡程度等等），在进行科学定量分析的基础上，确立一套可行的垃圾焚烧厂环境影响动态监控评估方法，并针对潜在环境风险制定出合理的经济补偿方案。

请你在收集相关资料的基础上考虑以下问题：

(1) 假定焚烧炉的排放符合国家新的污染物排放标准（参见附件1），根据垃圾焚烧厂周边环境设计一种环境指标监测方法，实现对垃圾焚烧厂烟气排放及相关环境影响状况的动态监控。以你设计的环境动态监控体系实际监控结果为依据，设计合理的周围居民风险承担经济补偿方案。

(2) 由于各种因素焚烧炉的除尘装置（如袋式除尘器）损坏或出现其他故障导致污染物的排放增加，致使相关各项指标将严重超标（如：烟尘浓度、二氧化硫、氮氧化物、一氧化碳、二恶英类及重金属等排放超标，附件2给出了一台可处理垃圾350吨/天的焚烧炉正常运作时的在线排放监测记录）。请在考虑故障发生概率的情况下修正你设计的监测方法和补偿方案。

ctivities, comprehensive and tamping Safety Foundation ... Troubleshooting, management mechanism, give full play to role of technical supervision and realization of troubleshooting, management, improved process management. This year completed the boiler lower header leakage, boiler pressure, a major risk management, completed 29 of great risks and 3 General problems of governance. Complete chemistry lab construction, thermal control, and complete the boiler scale integrated management, host shafting vibration of 10 scientific and technological projects, such as. Complete supercritical 630MW on-line simulation system development and application of circulating water MCC standby power transformation, the transformation of desulfurization waste water, the unit water supply system of comprehensive treatment and discharge valve modification of coal mill 5 key technological transformation projects, group health is improved. --Science and technology innovation is furtherincreased. Strengthen the characteristics of supercritical unit major issues, gradually clearing the particularity of supercritical unit and regularity. Developed motor oil time management, switch action times, statistics, coal-aided measurement software, improves the production level of lean management. Increased investment in science and technology, reporting science and technology projects and 14 technical project total cost percentage of the total annual production output of 0.25%. \-scale coal-fired power plant flue gas desulfurization, denitrification complete development and application of key technologies\, won the national science and technology progress second prize. 630MW supercritical units optimized control strategies and the 630MW development and application of on-line simulation system for supercritical units, supercritical 600MW units of turbine driven boiler feed pump set of comprehensive treatment of defects Datang technology respectively one or two and third. Meanwhile, information technology achievements, the company was named \na power information technology benchmarking enterprises.\nce has improved further. Modify the inspection standards and standards on a regular basis, standardizing work procedures, checking and inspection project. Deepening the BFS++ system, and implements maintenance information shared. Reorganizing RB logic again, and ensure the success of the RB. Innovating the mechanism of maintenance management, implemented a project manager system. Successful completion of two autonomous maintenance, reliability improved steadily. Implementing two c-level maintenance, project themselves 48.7% and 42.3%, respectively. Accomplish two circulating pumps repair and overhaul of four Mills, maintenance teams to get exercise. Promote the work of energy saving and consumption reducing, complete the unit energy consumption diagnosis, plant water balancetest, 10 energy-saving projects. Second, we should adhere to \he economic benefits of improving, outreachDelegates, staff: Hello! in the run-up to the Spring Festival, we held one session of four staff representatives Conference 2013-workshop, full back in 2012, careful analysis of the current situation, discuss 2013 development plans. Here, on behalf of my company 2013 work reports to the General Assembly, for consideration. Pillar I, 2012 back in 2012, XX power companies adhere to the party's 17 great spirit for guidance, comprehensively implement the scientific concept of development, promoting cost-leadership strategy, standards, focus on implementation, lean management, continuously improve, smooth present safety situation of enterprise management, business management and control scientific and standardized, and the dedication of staff, manage a harmonious and democratic atmosphere of the good situation. Main indicators are as follows:-the battery indicator: power generation totaled 7.815 billion kWh, beyond the annual budget implementation capacity of 315 million kWh, an increase of 757 million kWh. Sales totaled 7.425 billion kWh, exceeding sales of 330 million kWh the annual Executive budget, an increase of 729 million kWh. --Security measures: unplanned outages 2.5 times. No personal injury accident occurred, no major accident and above, no major fire accidents without environmental pollution accidents, safety for three consecutive years to maintain stability to good posture. Business financial indicators: total profits of 255 million Yuan, beyond the annual budget of 207 million Yuan, beyond the Datang company index 41.89 million Yuan, an increase of 1.76 million Yuan, FCM assessment at grade four. --Energy: power supply standard coal completing 312.25 g/kWh, down 0.1 g/kWh; integrated auxiliary power consumption ratio in 5.12%, down 0.26%; pollutant emissions performance greatly reduced compared to last year, carbon 0.09 g/kWh, sulfur dioxide 0.104 g/kWh NOx 0.512 g/kWh; dust removal efficiency of more than 99.8%. --Reliability index: equivalent availability factor in 93.47%, increased 7.95% from a year earlier. Equivalent forced outage rate 0.08%, 0.16% reduction over the same period a year earlier. Major achievements: first, we should adhere to the two \ment system\ngthening technological research, strengthen hidden hazards control and intrinsic safety Enterprise construction took new steps. -The two \ng the power of the company management system and the application and implementation of the safety loop five-star management system, improve the safety management system, realize the system of safety control. Further regulate security routines, safety supervision and management network role to play to achieve closed-loop. Strengthening the supervision and management of habitual violation of, strengthening the safety supervision of outsourcing contractors. Carried out in spring and autumn of security inspections, flood control and inspection, safety production month, day supervision of production safety and the Olympic Games and other附件1．污染物排放新标准 颗粒物 20 mg/m3（日均），30 mg/m3（时均） HCL 50 mg/m3（日均），60 mg/m3（时均） SO2 80 mg/m3（日均），100 mg/m3（时均） NOx 250 mg/m3（日均），350 mg/m3（时均） 汞 0.1 mg/m3 铅 1.0 mg/m3 二恶英 0.1 ngTEQ/m3

附件2．可处理垃圾350吨/天的焚烧炉正常运行在线监测数据

附件3．生活垃圾焚烧污染控制标准

附件4．焚烧厂选址处的风向、风速资料（一年） （焚烧厂地点为Google地图经纬度22.，114.）

附件4中风向按照焚烧厂地点为中心分为八个方向来风给出：东、东南、南、西南、西、西北、北、东北，风速为十分钟平均风速，单位为 米/秒。 一年内每天的雨量（若下雨）、气温（最高、最低）可参考深圳市气象局网站资料：http://www.szmb.gov.cn/article/QiHouYeWu/

附件5．垃圾焚烧发电介绍资料

ctivities, comprehensive and tamping Safety Foundation ... Troubleshooting, management mechanism, give full play to role of technical supervision and realization of troubleshooting, management, improved process management. This year completed the boiler lower header leakage, boiler pressure, a major risk management, completed 29 of great risks and 3 General problems of governance. Complete chemistry lab construction, thermal control, and complete the boiler scale integrated management, host shafting vibration of 10 scientific and technological projects, such as. Complete supercritical 630MW on-line simulation system development and application of circulating water MCC standby power transformation, the transformation of desulfurization waste water, the unit water supply system of comprehensive treatment and discharge valve modification of coal mill 5 key technological transformation projects, group health is improved. --Science and technology innovation is furtherincreased. Strengthen the characteristics of supercritical unit major issues, gradually clearing the particularity of supercritical unit and regularity. Developed motor oil time management, switch action times, statistics, coal-aided measurement software, improves the production level of lean management. Increased investment in science and technology, reporting science and technology projects and 14 technical project total cost percentage of the total annual production output of 0.25%. \-scale coal-fired power plant flue gas desulfurization, denitrification complete development and application of key technologies\, won the national science and technology progress second prize. 630MW supercritical units optimized control strategies and the 630MW development and application of on-line simulation system for supercritical units, supercritical 600MW units of turbine driven boiler feed pump set of comprehensive treatment of defects Datang technology respectively one or two and third. Meanwhile, information technology achievements, the company was named \na power information technology benchmarking enterprises.\nce has improved further. Modify the inspection standards and standards on a regular basis, standardizing workprocedures, checking and inspection project. Deepening the BFS++ system, and implements maintenance information shared. Reorganizing RB logic again, and ensure the success of the RB. Innovating the mechanism of maintenance management, implemented a project manager system. Successful completion of two autonomous maintenance, reliability improved steadily. Implementing two c-level maintenance, project themselves 48.7% and 42.3%, respectively. Accomplish two circulating pumps repair and overhaul of four Mills, maintenance teams to get exercise. Promote the work of energy saving and consumption reducing, complete the unit energy consumption diagnosis, plant water balancetest, 10 energy-saving projects. Second, we should adhere to \he economic benefits of improving, outreach