Banks analysis of financial data

Andreas P. Nawroth, Joachim Peinke

Institut fu¨ r Physik, Carl-von-Ossietzky Universita¨ t Oldenburg,

D-26111 Oldenburg, Germany Available online 30 March 2007

Abstract

A stochastic analysis of financial data is presented. In particular we investigate how the statistics of log returns change with different time delays t. The scale-dependent behaviour of financial data can be divided into two regions. The first time range, the small-timescale region (in the range of seconds) seems to be characterised by universal features. The second time range, the medium-timescale range from several minutes upwards can be characterised by a cascade process, which is given by a stochastic Markov process in the scale τ. A corresponding Fokker–Planck equation can be extracted from given data and provides a non-equilibrium thermodynamical description of the complexity of financial data.

Keywords: Banks; Financial markets; Stochastic processes;

Fokker–Planck equation

1.Introduction

Financial statements for banks present a different analytical problem than manufacturing and service companies. As a result, analysis of a bank’s

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financial statements requires a distinct approach that recognizes a bank’s somewhat unique risks.

Banks take deposits from savers, paying interest on some of these accounts. They pass these funds on to borrowers, receiving interest on the loans. Their profits are derived from the spread between the rate they pay for funds and the rate they receive from borrowers. This ability to pool deposits from many sources that can be lent to many different borrowers creates the flow of funds inherent in the banking system. By managing this flow of funds, banks generate profits, acting as the intermediary of interest paid and interest received and taking on the risks of offering credit.

2. Small-scale analysis

Banking is a highly leveraged business requiring regulators to dictate minimal capital levels to help ensure the solvency of each bank and the banking system. In the US, a bank’s primary regulator could be the Federal Reserve Board, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Office of Thrift Supervision or any one of 50 state regulatory bodies, depending on the charter of the bank. Within the Federal Reserve Board, there are 12 districts with 12 different regulatory staffing groups. These regulators focus on compliance with certain requirements, restrictions and guidelines, aiming to uphold the soundness and integrity of the banking system.

As one of the most highly regulated banking industries in the world, investors have some level of assurance in the soundness of the banking system. As a result, investors can focus most of their efforts on how a bank will perform in different economic environments.

Below is a sample income statement and balance sheet for a large bank. The first thing to notice is that the line items in the statements are not the same as your typical manufacturing or service firm. Instead, there are entries that represent interest earned or expensed as well as deposits and loans.

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As financial intermediaries, banks assume two primary types of risk as they manage the flow of money through their business. Interest rate risk is the management of the spread between interest paid on deposits and received on loans over time. Credit risk is the likelihood that a borrower will default on its loan or lease, causing the bank to lose any potential interest earned as well as the principal that was loaned to the borrower. As investors, these are the primary elements that need to be understood when analyzing a bank’s financial statement.

3. Medium scale analysis

The primary business of a bank is managing the spread between deposits. Basically when the interest that a bank earns from loans is greater than the interest it must pay on deposits, it generates a positive interest spread or net interest income. The size of this spread is a major determinant of the profit generated by a bank. This interest rate risk is primarily determined by the shape of the yield curve.

As a result, net interest income will vary, due to differences in the timing of accrual changes and changing rate and yield curve relationships. Changes in the general level of market interest rates also may cause changes in the volume and mix of a bank’s balance sheet products. For example, when economic activity continues to expand while interest rates are rising, commercial loan demand may increase while residential mortgage loan growth and prepayments slow.

Banks, in the normal course of business, assume financial risk by making loans at interest rates that differ from rates paid on deposits. Deposits often have shorter maturities than loans. The result is a balance sheet mismatch between assets (loans) and liabilities (deposits). An upward sloping yield curve is favorable to a bank as the bulk of its deposits are short term and their loans are longer term. This mismatch of maturities generates the net interest

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revenue banks enjoy. When the yield curve flattens, this mismatch causes net interest revenue to diminish.

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4.Even in a business using Six Sigmamethodology. an

“optimal” level of working capital management needs to be identified.

The table below ties together the bank’s balance sheet with the income

statement and displays the yield generated from earning assets and interest bearing deposits. Most banks provide this type of table in their annual reports. The following table represents the same bank as in the previous examples: First of all, the balance sheet is an average balance for the line item, rather than the balance at the end of the period. Average balances provide a better analytical framework to help understand the bank’s financial performance. Notice that for each average balance item there is a corresponding interest-related income, or expense item, and the average yield for the time period. It also demonstrates the impact a flattening yield curve can have on a bank’s net interest income.

The best place to start is with the net interest income line item. The bank experienced lower net interest income even though it had grown average balances. To help understand how this occurred, look at the yield achieved on total earning assets. For the current period ,it is actually higher than the prior period. Then examine the yield on the interest-bearing assets. It is

substantially higher in the current period, causing higher interest-generating expenses. This discrepancy in the performance of the bank is due to the flattening of the yield curve.

As the yield curve flattens, the interest rate the bank pays on shorter term deposits tends to increase faster than the rates it can earn from its loans. This causes the net interest income line to narrow, as shown above. One way

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banks try o overcome the impact of the flattening of the yield curve is to increase the fees they charge for services. As these fees become a larger portion of the bank’s income, it becomes less dependent on net interest income to drive earnings.

Changes in the general level of interest rates may affect the volume of certain types of banking activities that generate fee-related income. For example, the volume of residential mortgage loan originations typically declines as interest rates rise, resulting in lower originating fees. In contrast, mortgage servicing pools often face slower prepayments when rates are rising, since borrowers are less likely to refinance. Ad a result, fee income and associated economic value arising from mortgage servicing-related businesses may increase or remain stable in periods of moderately rising interest rates.

When analyzing a bank you should also consider how interest rate risk may act jointly with other risks facing the bank. For example, in a rising rate environment, loan customers may not be able to meet interest payments because of the increase in the size of the payment or reduction in earnings. The result will be a higher level of problem loans. An increase in interest rate is exposes a bank with a significant concentration in adjustable rate loans to credit risk. For a bank that is predominately funded with short-term liabilities, a rise in rates may decrease net interest income at the same time credit quality problems are on the increase.

5.Related Literature

The importance of working capital management is not new to the finance literature. Over twenty years ago. Largay and Stickney (1980) reported that the then-recent bankruptcy of W.T. Grant. a nationwide chain of department stores. should have been anticipated because the corporation had been running a deficit cash flow from operations for eight of the last ten years

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