强势美元回归？

美元正经历一波罕见的上升趋势，但它究竟能走多远？ 2013 年 7 月 16 日

今年夏天，到访美国的游客会意识到，他们手中的钱不像以前那样值钱了。今年，美元兑多种货币均有升值，因此，游客在美国消费的价格将比往常稍贵。美元走强的趋势并不常见。在20世纪80年代初和90年代末，美元也曾出现过一波上涨走势，但那只是美元总体下行趋势中的一段出轨之旅。自从40年前不再受布雷顿森林体系固定汇率规定的保护以来，美元对其它发达国家货币大部分时间都在下跌。但越来越多的分析师认为，美元又到了收复部分失地的时候了。

市场对美元乐观情绪的直接原因在于，美联储近期发出信号，它可能最早于9月份便开始缩减发行货币来购买债券的规模。量化宽松政策结束的预期已令美国的长期利率上升。美国10年期国债收益率已从5月份1.6%的低位攀升至2.6%。随着美债收益率的攀升，世界其它高风险国家的资本开始流向美国，转而促使美元走强。

但是，促使美元走强的更深层原因在于，该国的经济相对健康。银行已清理了抵押贷款坏账。美国房地产市场正在复苏，劳动力市场也正逐渐稳定。美国6月份非农就业人数增加了19.5万人，与年初至今的平均水平相一致。 尽管美国国内生产总值(GDP)增长率很可能继续提升，但至今仍处于较低水平。国际货币基金组织(IMF)本周更新了对该国经济增长的预测，称美国明年的经济增速将为2.7%。这种水平很难算得上”繁荣”。但是，日本、英国等大型发达经济体却连这样的水平也无望实现。而欧元区经济还处于衰退之中。

似乎为了强调这种不同的命运，欧洲各中央银行本月初表示，欧元区可能仍然需要采取较为宽松的货币政策。7月4日，欧洲央行(ECB)行长德拉吉(Mario Draghi)称，在未来很长一段时期内，该央行将把主要利率维持在”目前或更

低的水平”。这是欧洲央行首次对未来利率走势给出明确的指引。而就在不久之前，英国央行(BOE)货币政策委员会在新行长马克·卡尼(Mark Carney)上任后首次召开会议，并发表了一份声明。这份政策声明表示，英国的经济政策仍然十分疲软，不足以将基准利率提高至长期国债收益率近期上升所暗示的水平。

美联储关于可能放缓购债的前瞻性指导意见促使欧洲地区的国债收益率上升。美国和欧洲的货币政策处于不同的阶段，随着这种趋势变得清晰明朗，这两个地区的市场利差也有可能进一步扩大。美元将进一步升值。 升幅有限

但是，美元进一步升值幅度有多大？目前而言，美元兑其它主要货币累计缓慢升值5%-7%可能是最大限度。美国经济运行良好，足以支撑美元走强。但是，其经济还未强到能刺激美元像20世纪90年代末的牛市那样运行。即使美联储不久便结束债券购买政策，它将近乎于零的基准利率调高可能还需要数年时间。美联储曾表示，在美国失业率从目前的7.6%降低至6.5%前，其低利率政策将维持不变。7月10日，美联储主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)表示，将在今后很长一段时间内维持近乎零的利率水平。此外，美联储也会对美元过快升值作出反应，因为在经济疲软之际，没有哪个发达国家会希望本国货币走强。因此，法国兴业银行(Société Générale)分析师基特·朱克斯(Kit Juckes)表示，美元升幅将较为有限。

另外，欧元下跌的幅度也可能有限。欧元区债务危机肆虐已逾3年之久，但欧元始终都难以称为廉价货币。甚至在美联储和欧洲央行采取了一系列货币政策后，欧元仍然比《经济学人》巨无霸指数(Big Mac index)测算的公允价值1.26美元略高一点（见图）。巨无霸指数是一个用于粗略衡量货币价值的指数。

欧元抵抗力强大的原因之一在于，相比美元，外国人较难获得欧元，因为欧元区的经常账户呈现高额盈余，但美国却是高额赤字。另一个原因是，中国央行可能会在欧元每一次走低之际买入欧元，以降低该国巨额外汇储备中美元的比重，从而实现外汇储备多元化。欧元兑美元能够跌至1.2下方吗？美国一位对冲基金经理称：”这件事情你得问中国。”

目前看来，美元兑新兴市场货币的升值幅度可能最大。印度、南非等许多国家都依赖外国资本来为其贸易赤字融资，它们的货币自5月初以来已累计贬值约10%，其原因仅仅是市场预期美联储可能会退出目前的货币政策（见图）。只要美债收益率偏低，发达国家的投资者就很乐意购买新兴市场国家的国债。但是，在美联储结束量化宽松政策后，投资者将很难在美国获得所需资本。 据报道，为了放缓本币贬值的速度，一些新兴市场国家已经少量抛售了美元储备。这些央行随后需卖出一部分欧元储备，回购美

元，这将引发第二轮影响。明年夏天到访美国时，游客们将发现，美元已进一步升值，他们掏空钱包的速度也更快了。 英文原文：

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21581729-dollar-enjoying-rare-period-strength-how-far-can-rally-go-green

The rising dollar

Green and back

The dollar is enjoying a rare period of strength. How far can the rally go?

Jul 13th 2013 |From the print edition

VISITORS to America this summer will find their money does not stretch quite as far as on previous trips. The dollar has risen this year against a broad range of currencies, so holiday purchases will be a bit pricier than usual. A strengthening dollar is a rare thing. The upward bursts in the early 1980s and the late 1990s were deviations from a generally falling trend. Since it was freed from the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates four decades ago, the dollar has mostly fallen in value against other rich-world currencies. But a growing band of analysts reckon it is time for the greenback to regain a bit of lost ground.

The immediate spur for optimism about the dollar is the recent signalling from the Federal Reserve that its purchases of bonds with newly created money may start to tail off as soon as September. The prospect of an end to quantitative easing has already pushed up long-term interest rates. The yield on ten-year

Treasuries has risen to 2.6% from a low of 1.6% in May. As yields rise, capital is attracted to America from riskier parts of the world. That in turn pushes up the dollar.

The deeper cause of the dollar rally is the relative health of America’s economy. Bad mortgage debts have been cleaned out of banks. The housing market is recovering. Jobs are growing steadily. Non-farm

employers added 195,000 workers to their payrolls in June, in line with the average increase so far this year. GDP growth has been modest even if it is likely to strengthen a bit. In an update to its projections, the IMF this week forecast that the American economy will grow by 2.7% next year. That is hardly a boom. But other

big rich economies, such as Japan and Britain, cannot hope to do nearly as well. And the euro zone is still in recession.

As if to underline these divergent fortunes central banks in Europe indicated earlier this month that looser monetary policy may still be required on their patch. Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), said on July 4th that the bank expects to keep its main interest rates “at present or lower levels for an extended period of time”. This was the first time the ECB had given explicit guidance about the future path of interest rates. It came shortly after a statement from the Bank of England’s monetary-policy

committee, meeting for the first time under its new governor, Mark Carney, which said the British economy was still too weak to warrant the increases in the bank’s benchmark interest rate implied by recent rises in longer-term bond yields.

The Fed’s own forward guidance about the probable “tapering” of its bond purchases is what pushed up these yields in Europe. As the extent to which monetary policy in America and Europe are on different paths becomes clear, the transatlantic gap in market interest rates is likely to widen. The dollar ought to rise further. Still shallow

But how much further? For now a fitful upwards grind of 5-7% against the other major currencies might well be the limit. America’s economy is doing well enough to give its currency a boost, but it is not yet so strong as to spur the sort of bull run the dollar enjoyed in the late 1990s. Even if the Fed dials back bond purchases soon, it might be years before it raises its benchmark interest rate from near zero. The Fed has said it will stay where it is until unemployment, now 7.6%, has fallen to 6.5%; on July 10th Ben Bernanke, its chairman, said the rate could stick at near zero long after that. And the Fed would itself react to a fast-rising dollar: no rich country is keen to have a strong currency when growth is scarce. That is why the dollar rally will be a shallow one, says Kit Juckes, an analyst at Société Générale. There may also be a limit to how far the euro can fall. The euro zone’s sovereign-debt crisis has dragged on for more than three years. Yet in all that time the euro could rarely be described as cheap. And even after the monetary-policy steers from the Fed and the ECB, the euro is still a bit above the fair value of $1.26 suggested by the Big Mac index, our rough-and-ready guide to currencies (see article). One reason for this resilience might be that euros are harder for foreigners to earn than dollars are: the euro zone has a large current-account surplus whereas

America has a big deficit. Another is that China’s central bank may have used any temporary weakness in the euro as an opportunity to diversify its huge reserves away from the dollar. Can the euro get below, say, $1.20? “You’ll have to ask the Chinese,” says a US-based hedge-fund manager.

The dollar seems likely to make the biggest gains against emerging-market currencies. A handful of countries, including India and South Africa, which

depend on foreign capital to finance their trade deficits have already seen their currencies fall by around 10% since the beginning of May, merely on the prospect that the Fed might take its foot off the monetary-policy pedal (see chart). As long as bond yields were low in America,

rich-world investors were happy to buy emerging-market bonds. But such capital will be a lot harder to secure from America as quantitative easing comes to an end.

Some emerging markets have already reportedly sold a slug of dollars from their foreign-exchange reserves to slow the descent of their currencies. There may be some second-round effects from this as these central banks then replenish their dollar reserves by selling some of their euros. By next summer visitors to America may find the dollar that bit stronger and their wallets emptying that bit faster.