µÚ¶þÕ¾­µäµ¥·½³Ì¼ÆÁ¿¾­¼ÃѧģÐÍ£ºÒ»ÔªÏßÐԻعéÄ£ÐÍ

µÚ¶þÕ ¾­µäµ¥·½³Ì¼ÆÁ¿¾­¼ÃѧģÐÍ£ºÒ»ÔªÏßÐԻعéÄ£ÐÍ

Ò»¡¢ÄÚÈÝÌáÒª

±¾Õ½éÉÜÁ˻عé·ÖÎöµÄ»ù±¾Ë¼ÏëÓë»ù±¾·½·¨¡£Ê×ÏÈ£¬±¾Õ´Ó×ÜÌ廨¹éÄ£ÐÍÓë×ÜÌ廨¹éº¯Êý¡¢Ñù±¾»Ø¹éÄ£ÐÍÓëÑù±¾»Ø¹éº¯ÊýÕâÁ½×é¸ÅÄʼ£¬½¨Á¢Á˻عé·ÖÎöµÄ»ù±¾Ë¼Ïë¡£×ÜÌ廨¹éº¯ÊýÊǶÔ×ÜÌå±äÁ¿¼ä¹ØÏµµÄ¶¨Á¿±íÊö£¬ÓÉ×ÜÌ廨¹éÄ£ÐÍÔÚÈô¸É»ù±¾¼ÙÉèϵõ½£¬µ«ËüÖ»Êǽ¨Á¢ÔÚÀíÂÛÖ®ÉÏ£¬ÔÚÏÖʵÖÐÖ»ÄÜÏÈ´Ó×ÜÌåÖгéȡһ¸öÑù±¾£¬»ñµÃÑù±¾»Ø¹éº¯Êý£¬²¢ÓÃËü¶Ô×ÜÌ廨¹éº¯Êý×ö³öͳ¼ÆÍƶϡ£

±¾ÕµÄÒ»¸öÖØµãÊÇÈçºÎ»ñÈ¡ÏßÐÔµÄÑù±¾»Ø¹éº¯Êý£¬Ö÷񻃾¼°µ½ÆÕͨ×îС¶þ³Ë·¨£¨OLS£©µÄѧϰÓëÕÆÎÕ¡£Í¬Ê±£¬Ò²½éÉÜÁ˼«´óËÆÈ»¹À¼Æ·¨£¨ML£©ÒÔ¼°¾Ø¹À¼Æ·¨£¨MM£©¡£

±¾ÕµÄÁíÒ»¸öÖØµãÊǶÔÑù±¾»Ø¹éº¯ÊýÄÜ·ñ´ú±í×ÜÌ廨¹éº¯Êý½øÐÐͳ¼ÆÍƶϣ¬¼´½øÐÐËùνµÄͳ¼Æ¼ìÑ顣ͳ¼Æ¼ìÑé°üÀ¨Á½¸ö·½Ã棬һÊÇÏȼìÑéÑù±¾»Ø¹éº¯ÊýÓëÑù±¾µãµÄ¡°ÄâºÏÓŶȡ±£¬µÚ¶þÊǼìÑéÑù±¾»Ø¹éº¯ÊýÓë×ÜÌ廨¹éº¯ÊýµÄ¡°½Ó½ü¡±³Ì¶È¡£ºóÕßÓÖ°üÀ¨Á½¸ö²ã´Î£ºµÚÒ»£¬¼ìÑé½âÊͱäÁ¿¶Ô±»½âÊͱäÁ¿ÊÇ·ñ´æÔÚ×ÅÏÔÖøµÄÏßÐÔÓ°Ïì¹ØÏµ£¬Í¨¹ý±äÁ¿µÄt¼ìÑéÍê³É£»µÚ¶þ£¬¼ìÑ黨¹éº¯ÊýÓë×ÜÌ廨¹éº¯ÊýµÄ¡°½Ó½ü¡±³Ì¶È£¬Í¨¹ý²ÎÊý¹À¼ÆÖµµÄ¡°Çø¼ä¼ìÑ顱Íê³É¡£

±¾Õ»¹ÓÐÈý·½ÃæµÄÄÚÈݲ»ÈݺöÊÓ¡£ÆäÒ»£¬Èô¸É»ù±¾¼ÙÉè¡£Ñù±¾»Ø¹éº¯Êý²ÎÊýµÄ¹À¼ÆÒÔ¼°¶Ô²ÎÊý¹À¼ÆÁ¿µÄͳ¼ÆÐÔÖʵķÖÎöÒÔ¼°Ëù½øÐеÄͳ¼ÆÍƶ϶¼Êǽ¨Á¢ÔÚÕâЩ»ù±¾¼ÙÉèÖ®Éϵġ£Æä¶þ£¬²ÎÊý¹À¼ÆÁ¿Í³¼ÆÐÔÖʵķÖÎö£¬°üÀ¨Ð¡Ñù±¾ÐÔÖÊÓë´óÑù±¾ÐÔÖÊ£¬ÓÈÆäÊÇÎÞÆ«ÐÔ¡¢ÓÐЧÐÔÓëÒ»ÖÂÐÔ¹¹³ÉÁ˶ÔÑù±¾¹À¼ÆÁ¿ÓÅÁÓµÄ×îÖ÷ÒªµÄºâÁ¿×¼Ôò¡£Goss-markov¶¨Àí±íÃ÷OLS¹À¼ÆÁ¿ÊÇ×î¼ÑÏßÐÔÎÞÆ«¹À¼ÆÁ¿¡£ÆäÈý£¬ÔËÓÃÑù±¾»Ø¹éº¯Êý½øÐÐÔ¤²â£¬°üÀ¨±»½âÊͱäÁ¿Ìõ¼þ¾ùÖµÓë¸öÖµµÄÔ¤²â£¬ÒÔ¼°Ô¤²âÖÃÐÅÇø¼äµÄ¼ÆËã¼°Æä±ä»¯ÌØÕ÷¡£

¶þ¡¢µäÐÍÀýÌâ·ÖÎö

Àý1¡¢Áîkids±íʾһÃû¸¾Å®ÉúÓýº¢×ÓµÄÊýÄ¿£¬educ±íʾ¸Ã¸¾Å®½ÓÊܹý½ÌÓýµÄÄêÊý¡£ÉúÓýÂʶԽÌÓýÄêÊýµÄ¼òµ¥»Ø¹éÄ£ÐÍΪ

kids??0??1educ??

1

£¨1£©Ëæ»úÈŶ¯Ïî?°üº¬Ê²Ã´ÑùµÄÒòËØ£¿ËüÃÇ¿ÉÄÜÓë½ÌÓýˮƽÏà¹ØÂð£¿

£¨2£©ÉÏÊö¼òµ¥»Ø¹é·ÖÎöÄܹ»½Òʾ½ÌÓý¶ÔÉúÓýÂÊÔÚÆäËûÌõ¼þ²»±äϵÄÓ°ÏìÂð£¿Çë½âÊÍ¡£ ½â´ð£º

£¨1£©ÊÕÈë¡¢ÄêÁä¡¢¼ÒÍ¥×´¿ö¡¢Õþ¸®µÄÏà¹ØÕþ²ßµÈÒ²ÊÇÓ°ÏìÉúÓýÂʵÄÖØÒªµÄÒòËØ£¬ÔÚÉÏÊö¼òµ¥»Ø¹éÄ£ÐÍÖУ¬ËüÃDZ»°üº¬ÔÚÁËËæ»úÈŶ¯ÏîÖ®ÖС£ÓÐЩÒòËØ¿ÉÄÜÓë½ÌÓýˮƽÏà¹Ø£¬ÈçÊÕÈëˮƽÓë½ÌÓýˮƽÍùÍù³ÊÕýÏà¹Ø¡¢ÄêÁä´óСÓë½ÌÓýˮƽ³Ê¸ºÏà¹ØµÈ¡£

£¨2£©µ±¹é½áÔÚËæ»úÈŶ¯ÏîÖеÄÖØÒªÓ°ÏìÒòËØÓëÄ£ÐÍÖеĽÌÓýˮƽeducÏà¹ØÊ±£¬ÉÏÊö»Ø¹éÄ£ÐͲ»Äܹ»½Òʾ½ÌÓý¶ÔÉúÓýÂÊÔÚÆäËûÌõ¼þ²»±äϵÄÓ°Ï죬ÒòΪÕâʱ³öÏÖ½âÊͱäÁ¿ÓëËæ»úÈŶ¯ÏîÏà¹ØµÄÇéÐΣ¬»ù±¾¼ÙÉè4²»Âú×ã¡£

Àý2£®ÒÑÖª»Ø¹éÄ£ÐÍE????N??£¬Ê½ÖÐEΪijÀ๫˾һÃûÐÂÔ±¹¤µÄÆðʼн½ð£¨Ôª£©£¬NΪËùÊܽÌÓýˮƽ£¨Ä꣩¡£Ëæ»úÈŶ¯Ïî?µÄ·Ö²¼Î´Öª£¬ÆäËûËùÓмÙÉè¶¼Âú×ã¡£

£¨1£©´ÓÖ±¹Û¼°¾­¼Ã½Ç¶È½âÊÍ?ºÍ?¡£

?Âú×ãÏßÐÔÐÔ¡¢ÎÞÆ«ÐÔ¼°ÓÐЧÐÔÂ𣿼òµ¥³ÂÊöÀíÓÉ¡£ ?ºÍ?£¨2£©OLS¹À¼ÆÁ¿?£¨3£©¶Ô²ÎÊýµÄ¼ÙÉè¼ìÑ黹ÄܽøÐÐÂ𣿼òµ¥³ÂÊöÀíÓÉ¡£ ½â´ð£º

£¨1£©???NΪ½ÓÊܹýNÄê½ÌÓýµÄÔ±¹¤µÄ×ÜÌ寽¾ùÆðʼн½ð¡£µ±NΪÁãʱ£¬Æ½¾ùн½ðΪ?£¬Òò´Ë?±íʾûÓнÓÊܹý½ÌÓýÔ±¹¤µÄƽ¾ùÆðʼн½ð¡£?ÊÇÿµ¥Î»N±ä»¯ËùÒýÆðµÄEµÄ±ä»¯£¬¼´±íʾÿ¶à½ÓÊÜÒ»ÄêѧУ½ÌÓýËù¶ÔÓ¦µÄн½ðÔö¼ÓÖµ¡£

?Âú×ãÏßÐÔÐÔ¡¢ÎÞÆ«ÐÔ¼°ÓÐЧÐÔ£¬ÒòΪÕâЩÐÔÖʵĵijÉÁ¢ÎÞÐè?ºÍÈÔ?£¨2£©OLS¹À¼ÆÁ¿?Ëæ»úÈŶ¯Ïî?µÄÕý̬·Ö²¼¼ÙÉè¡£

£¨3£©Èç¹û?tµÄ·Ö²¼Î´Öª£¬ÔòËùÓеļÙÉè¼ìÑé¶¼ÊÇÎÞЧµÄ¡£ÒòΪt¼ìÑéÓëF¼ìÑéÊǽ¨Á¢ÔÚ?µÄÕý̬·Ö²¼¼ÙÉèÖ®Éϵġ£

Àý3¡¢ÔÚÀý2ÖУ¬Èç¹û±»½âÊͱäÁ¿ÐÂÔ±¹¤Æðʼн½ðµÄ¼ÆÁ¿µ¥Î»ÓÉÔª¸ÄΪ100Ôª£¬¹À¼ÆµÄ

½Ø¾àÏîÓëбÂÊÏîÓÐÎޱ仯£¿Èç¹û½âÊͱäÁ¿ËùÊܽÌÓýˮƽµÄ¶ÈÁ¿µ¥Î»ÓÉÄê¸ÄΪÔ£¬¹À¼ÆµÄ½Ø¾àÏîÓëбÂÊÏîÓÐÎޱ仯£¿ ½â´ð£º

Ê×ÏÈ¿¼²ì±»½âÊͱäÁ¿¶ÈÁ¿µ¥Î»±ä»¯µÄÇéÐΡ£ÒÔE*±íʾÒÔ°ÙԪΪ¶ÈÁ¿µ¥Î»µÄн½ð£¬Ôò

E?E*?100????N??

ÓÉ´ËÓÐÈçÏÂÐÂÄ£ÐÍ

E*?(?/100)?(?/100)N?(?/100)

2

»ò E*??*??*N??*

ÕâÀï?*??/100£¬?*??/100¡£ËùÒÔеĻعéϵÊý½«ÎªÔ­Ê¼Ä£ÐͻعéϵÊýµÄ1/100¡£ ÔÙ¿¼ÂǽâÊͱäÁ¿¶ÈÁ¿µ¥Î»±ä»¯µÄÇéÐΡ£ÉèN*ΪÓÃÔ·ݱíʾµÄÐÂÔ±¹¤ÊܽÌÓýµÄʱ¼ä³¤¶È£¬ÔòN*=12N£¬ÓÚÊÇ

E????N??????(N*/12)??

»ò E???(?/12)N*??

¿É¼û£¬¹À¼ÆµÄ½Ø¾àÏî²»±ä£¬¶øÐ±ÂÊÏΪԭ»Ø¹éϵÊýµÄ1/12¡£

Àý4£®¶ÔÓÚÈ˾ù´æ¿îÓëÈ˾ùÊÕÈëÖ®¼äµÄ¹ØÏµÊ½St????Yt??tʹÓÃÃÀ¹ú36ÄêµÄÄê¶ÈÊý¾ÝµÃÈçϹÀ¼ÆÄ£ÐÍ£¬À¨ºÅÄÚΪ±ê×¼²î£º

??384.105?0.067YStt(151.105)(0.011)

R2 ??19.0£½0.538 ?92 3£¨1£©?µÄ¾­¼Ã½âÊÍÊÇʲô£¿

£¨2£©?ºÍ?µÄ·ûºÅÊÇʲô£¿ÎªÊ²Ã´£¿Êµ¼ÊµÄ·ûºÅÓëÄãµÄÖ±¾õÒ»ÖÂÂð£¿Èç¹ûÓгåÍ»µÄ»°£¬Äã¿ÉÒÔ¸ø³ö¿ÉÄܵÄÔ­ÒòÂð£¿

£¨3£©¶ÔÓÚÄâºÏÓŶÈÄãÓÐʲô¿´·¨Âð£¿

£¨4£©¼ìÑéÊÇ·ñÿһ¸ö»Ø¹éϵÊý¶¼ÓëÁãÏÔÖø²»Í¬£¨ÔÚ1%ˮƽÏ£©¡£Í¬Ê±¶ÔÁã¼ÙÉèºÍ±¸Ôñ¼ÙÉè¡¢¼ìÑéͳ¼ÆÖµ¡¢Æä·Ö²¼ºÍ×ÔÓɶÈÒÔ¼°¾Ü¾øÁã¼ÙÉèµÄ±ê×¼½øÐгÂÊö¡£ÄãµÄ½áÂÛÊÇʲô£¿ ½â´ð£º

£¨1£©?ΪÊÕÈëµÄ±ß¼Ê´¢ÐîÇãÏò£¬±íʾÈ˾ùÊÕÈëÿÔö¼Ó1ÃÀԪʱÈ˾ù´¢ÐîµÄÔ¤ÆÚƽ¾ù±ä»¯Á¿¡£

£¨2£©ÓÉÓÚÊÕÈëΪÁãʱ£¬¼ÒÍ¥ÈÔ»áÓÐÖ§³ö£¬¿ÉÔ¤ÆÚÁãÊÕÈëʱµÄƽ¾ù´¢ÐîΪ¸º£¬Òò´Ë?·ûºÅӦΪ¸º¡£´¢ÐîÊÇÊÕÈëµÄÒ»²¿·Ö£¬ÇÒ»áËæ×ÅÊÕÈëµÄÔö¼Ó¶øÔö¼Ó£¬Òò´ËÔ¤ÆÚ?µÄ·ûºÅΪÕý¡£Êµ¼ÊµÄ»Ø¹éʽÖУ¬?µÄ·ûºÅΪÕý£¬ÓëÔ¤ÆÚµÄÒ»Ö¡£µ«½Ø¾àÏîΪ¸º£¬ÓëÔ¤ÆÚ²»·û¡£Õâ¿ÉÄÜÓëÓÉÓÚÄ£Ð͵ĴíÎóÉ趨ÐÎÔì³ÉµÄ¡£Èç¼ÒÍ¥µÄÈË¿ÚÊý¿ÉÄÜÓ°Ïì¼ÒÍ¥µÄ´¢ÐîÐÎΪ£¬Ê¡ÂԸñäÁ¿½«¶Ô½Ø¾àÏîµÄ¹À¼Æ²úÉúÓ°Ï죻ÁíÒ»ÖÖ¿ÉÄܾÍÊÇÏßÐÔÉ趨¿ÉÄܲ»ÕýÈ·¡£

£¨3£©ÄâºÏÓŶȿ̻­½âÊͱäÁ¿¶Ô±»½âÊͱäÁ¿±ä»¯µÄ½âÊÍÄÜÁ¦¡£Ä£ÐÍÖÐ53.8%µÄÄâºÏÓŶȣ¬±íÃ÷ÊÕÈëµÄ±ä»¯¿ÉÒÔ½âÊÍ´¢ÐîÖÐ53.8 %µÄ±ä¶¯¡£

£¨4£©¼ìÑéµ¥¸ö²ÎÊý²ÉÓÃt¼ìÑ飬Áã¼ÙÉèΪ²ÎÊýΪÁ㣬±¸Ôñ¼ÙÉèΪ²ÎÊý²»ÎªÁ㡣˫±äÁ¿

3

ÇéÐÎÏÂÔÚÁã¼ÙÉèÏÂt ·Ö²¼µÄ×ÔÓɶÈΪn-2=36-2=34¡£ÓÉt·Ö²¼±íÖª£¬Ë«²à1%ϵÄÁÙ½çֵλÓÚ2.750Óë2.704Ö®¼ä¡£Ð±ÂÊÏî¼ÆËãµÄtֵΪ0.067/0.011=6.09£¬½Ø¾àÏî¼ÆËãµÄtֵΪ384.105/151.105=2.54¡£¿É¼ûбÂÊÏî¼ÆËãµÄt Öµ´óÓÚÁÙ½çÖµ£¬½Ø¾àÏîСÓÚÁÙ½çÖµ£¬Òò´Ë¾Ü¾øÐ±ÂÊÏîΪÁãµÄ¼ÙÉ裬µ«²»¾Ü¾ø½Ø¾àÏîΪÁãµÄ¼ÙÉè¡£

Èý¡¢½Ì²ÄÖв¿·ÖϰÌâ

2.1¡¢ÎªÊ²Ã´¼ÆÁ¿¾­¼ÃѧģÐ͵ÄÀíÂÛ·½³ÌÖбØÐë°üº¬Ëæ»ú¸ÉÈÅÏ

¼ÆÁ¿¾­¼ÃÄ£ÐÍ¿¼²ìµÄÊǾßÓÐÒò¹û¹ØÏµµÄËæ»ú±äÁ¿¼äµÄ¾ßÌåÁªÏµ·½Ê½¡£ÓÉÓÚÊǶԻù±äÁ¿£¬Òâζ×ÅÓ°Ïì±»½âÊͱäÁ¿µÄÒòËØÊǸ´ÔӵijýÁ˽âÊͱäÁ¿µÄÓ°ÏìÍ⣬»¹ÓÐÆäËûÎÞ·¨ÔÚÄ£ÐÍÖжÀÁ¢ÁгöµÄ¸÷ÖÖÒòËØµÄÓ°Ïì¡£ÕâÑù£¬Ä£ÐÍÖоͱØÐëʹÓÃÒ»¸öËæ»ú¸ÉÈÅÏî±äÁ¿À´´ú±íËùÓÐÕâЩÔÚÄ£ÐÍÖÐÎÞ·¨¶ÀÁ¢±íʾ³öÀ´µÄÓ°ÏìÒòËØ¡££¨»ò¼ûµÚÒ»ÕÂϰÌ⣩ 2-2£®ÏÂÁз½³ÌÄÄЩÊÇÕýÈ·µÄ£¿ÄÄЩÊÇ´íÎóµÄ£¿ÎªÊ²Ã´£¿

¢Å yt????xtt?1,2,?,n ¢Æ yt????xt??tt?1,2,?,n

?x?????¢Ç yt??tt?x??????t??¢È ytt?x???¢É yt??t?x????t??¢Ê yt?x??????t¢Ë yt??t?x??????t?t??¢Ì ytt?1,2,?,n t?1,2,?,n t?1,2,?,n t?1,2,?,n

t?1,2,?,n t?1,2,?,n

ÆäÖдø¡°£Þ¡±Õß±íʾ¡°¹À¼ÆÖµ¡±¡£

´ð£º´í£»Õý£»´í£»´í£»´í£»Õý£¬Õý£¬´í¡£

2.3¡¢ÏßÐԻعéÄ£ÐÍÓÐÄÄЩ»ù±¾¼ÙÉ裿Υ±³»ù±¾¼ÙÉèµÄ¼ÆÁ¿¾­¼ÃѧģÐÍÊÇ·ñ¾Í²»¿É¹À¼Æ£¿

´ð£ºÏßÐԻعéÄ£Ð͵Ļù±¾¼ÙÉ裨ʵ¼ÊÊÇÕë¶ÔÆÕͨ×îС¶þ³Ë·¨µÄ»ù±¾¼ÙÉ裩ÓÐÁ½´óÀࣺһÀàÊǹØÓÚ½âÊͱäÁ¿µÄ£¬½âÊͱäÁ¿ÊÇÈ·¶¨ÐÔ±äÁ¿£¬¶øÇÒÈç¹ûÊÇËæ»ú±äÁ¿Ôò½âÊͱäÁ¿ÓëËæ»ú¸ÉÈÅÏîÖ®¼ä»¥²»Ïà¹Ø£»Ò»ÀàÊǹØÓÚËæ¼´¸ÉÈÅÏîµÄ£¬Ëæ»úÎó²îÏî¾ßÓÐ0¾ùÖµºÍͬ·½²î£»Ëæ»úÎó²îÏîÔÚ²»Í¬Ñù±¾µãÖ®¼äÊǶÀÁ¢µÄ£¬²»´æÔÚÐòÁÐÏà¹Ø£»Ëæ»úÎó²îÏîÓë½âÊͱäÁ¿Ö®¼ä²»Ïà¹Ø£»Ëæ»úÎó²îÏî·þ´Ó0¾ùÖµ¡¢Í¬·½²îµÄÕý̬·Ö²¼¡£Î¥±³»ù±¾¼ÙÉèµÄ¼ÆÁ¿¾­¼ÃѧģÐÍ»¹ÊÇ¿ÉÒÔ¹À¼ÆµÄ£¬Ö»ÊDz»ÄÜʹÓÃÆÕͨ×îС¶þ³Ë·¨½øÐйÀ¼Æ¡£

4

ÁªÏµ¿Í·þ£º779662525#qq.com(#Ìæ»»Îª@) ËÕICP±¸20003344ºÅ-4