商务英语阅读教程3UNIT3TradeDisputes

贸易争端将迎来2008

贸易政策的前景,今年的严峻,虽然齐心协力,被许多商人在方法上的改变可能阻止倒退到贸易保护主义。

在美国,经济恶化的消息再加上即将举行的选举保证慢,如果有的话,在世界范围内减少贸易壁垒,增加对美国公司的市场准入进度。在世界各地,这些底片是由恐惧不断扩大中国的出口,缺乏在世界贸易组织(WTO )多哈谈判的政治意愿,并不愿意在没有总统的快速的贸易伙伴作出让步到美国的强化跟踪谈判授权(又名贸易促进权) 。 会有因经济和政治气候和缺乏在多哈谈判取得突破的紧张局势今年。将会有关于所采取的行动(而不是取),因为这紧张的结果分歧。现在的问题是,他们将如何将这些分歧进行管理,以及是否导致贸易纠纷。

默认选项是在纠纷显著增加,随着美国和其贸易伙伴的焦点会导致保护主义和歧视性政策。大多数人会从长远来看,如果失去这种情况发生。现在的挑战是分析多边贸易体系将面临和发展战略,以限制所产生的危害,并作为垫脚石恢复进度,当全球经济和政治气候改善的困难。

从历史上看,贸易自由化努力取得成功的只有在一个健康的全球经济气候(在乌拉圭回合谈判在1990年代初建立世界贸易组织)或经济大灾难后(总协定关税与贸易,或关贸总协定,二战结束后) 。在这种时候,政府和企业专注于必要的讨价还价,以实现更大的全球自由化。给人以这一概念得到 - 的减少你的一些贸易壁垒来保护别人的减少更感兴趣的领域,你,确认和采取行动。那些失去保护不喜欢它,但亲自由化的力量是强大的。

相反,在有问题的经济气候,怕给人占主导地位。政客听到更多来自选民谴责收入进口(现在全球化)和就业的不利影响比他们从那些寻求给予或接受扩大市场准入做。在美国,这种转变是明显的在2006年的国会选举。它每天都变得更加明显,因为经济成长放缓的迹象。两党努力制定一个一揽子计划是值得欢迎的,但他们是极不可能提高贸易政策的画面。 与此同时,对于有利于贸易的国会多数的前景是零,而且,虽然许多美国总统候选人的保护主义论调是只是说说而已,对于一个贸易型的管理,前景是不确定的,最好的。造成的经济疲软全身关注的是通过持续的中国经济主宰的具体化恐惧带动。据悉话语,或行政告诫关于进一步贸易自由化,为国家的经济利益没有量作为一个整体,可以抵消目前恐惧情绪在美国 自从第二次世界大战结束后,美国一直被形容为世界贸易自由化的火车头。一个非常坚实的论据可以说,关贸总协定建立与WTO从它演变为美国的意愿,使市场开放的让步要驱动其他国家同意的贸易壁垒,增加市场准入机会,以越来越大的降低的结果。

尽管美国贸易代表施瓦布英勇的努力,现在国家已停止在壁板。公众不接受亲贸易说辞,和政府是无法令人信服地答应贸易伙伴,国会将制定贸易自由化的措施,如减少农业支持(增强其它农产品出口国的竞争力),或改变某些美国反倾销规则我们的大多数贸易伙伴的查看方式公然保护主义。

更换的机车是必要的,但没有出现。无论是欧盟,日本也没有国家的任何集合已经上前在世贸组织多哈回合谈判发挥领导作用。相反,我们的目标似乎是要确保归咎于失败归咎于别人。这是由政府的无能,以确保贸易促进权续期(下国会同意对贸易协定的向上或向下投票,割让其正常功能调理批准关于修订谈判文本)愈演愈烈。毫不奇怪,我们的许多贸易伙伴将使用没有快速通道为借口,而不是在寻求美国的让步,声称国会将要求额外的让步超出最终由政府进行谈判。[[

什么是必须要做的?一种可能性是蹲下,等待更好的时机。这将确保以最佳的停滞状态,但更可能在整个2008年的全球增长保护主义。有一个更好的选择,虽然。这可能是一个糟糕的一年前瞻性的贸易政策,但它不一定是一个灾难。而非割让领域那些主张加强保护和单边主义政策,多边自由化的支持者可能寻求保持多哈谈判的积极方面。尽管导致一个圆满的句

号显著突破将不会出现在2008年,谈判不必崩溃。 在乌拉圭回合中的经验很有启发性。有一个为期三年的时候没有任何主要的谈判双方能在政治上敏感的问题,如农业,服务业和纺织品继续前进。尽管这个高层次的瘫痪,全部15个标的物谈判小组继续埋头苦干。因此,当全世界的政治将重新出现在1993年中期,大部分技术草丛中被清理掉。今年可能会出现类似的情况。迄今取得的谈判成果可能被保留,并采取措施尽可能使技术进步。

在国内方面,太,2008不一定是一个灾难。在这里,关键将是教育和理解。 为了避免显著倒退,那些支持多边自由化的人必须摆脱他们的狐狸洞,并更积极有效地参与全球化的辩论中,教育的政治家和舆论制造者对增辟自由化的好处。与此同时,他们绝不能忽视全球化的黑暗面:它并没有惠及所有的美国人。许多人对他们的收入和就业机会的合理关切。

经济学入门课程对自由贸易的整体利益可能是经济上的声音,但不会在政治上的成功,尤其是考虑到日益恶化的经济环境。为了加强他们的介绍,贸易自由化的倡导者必须努力重新制定,倡导和推行政策,这将有助于那些生活受全球化负面影响。这个选择是理论纯洁性和政治上的失败,或者创造性的解决方案,承认的政治气候。

实际上,现今的贸易政策,当然是依赖于什么是那些支持扩大贸易自由化完成的。如果他们什么也不做,年内将看到显著增加的国际经济局势紧张,分歧和争议。我们面临的挑战是开发支持开放的新模式,一个接受现实,并提出解决方案,为那些谁是全球化的伤害。通过这样做,我们可能会限制贸易保护主义的倒退这样的进步可以在全球经济和政治环境的改善恢复。

C.克里斯托弗PARLIN是国际贸易实务中的米勒和特许骑士成员,在美国贸易代表办公室和以前在商务部和财政部的美国各部门任职18年后。

Trade Disputes Will Mark 2008

贸易纠纷将于2008年马克

The trade policy outlook for this year is grim, though a concerted effort and a change in approach by many businesspeople could stem backsliding into protectionism.

今年的贸易政策前景严峻,尽管共同努力和改变方法,许多商人可能倒退到贸易保护主义。

In the U.S. , worsening economic news coupled with the upcoming elections guarantee slow, if any progress, progress in reducing worldwide trade barriers and increasing market access for U.S.

companies. Around the world, these negatives are reinforced by fear of ever-expanding Chinese exports, lack of political will in the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Doha negotiators, and reluctance by trading partners to make concessions to the U.S. in the absence of the president’s fast track negotiating authority (aka trade promotion authority).

在美国,不断恶化的经济新闻加上即将到来的选举保证慢,如果有任何进展,进展减少全球贸易壁垒,提高市场准入为美国公司。世界各地,这些底片是强化了对不断扩大的中国出口的恐惧,缺乏政治将在世界贸易组织(WTO)多哈回合谈判代表,以及通过贸易伙伴做出让步,美国没有总统的快速跟踪谈判授权(即贸易促进授权)。

There will be tensions this year because of the economic and political climate and the lack of

breakthroughs in the Doha negotiations. There will be disagreements regarding actions taken (and not taken) as a result of this tension. The question is how these disagreements will be managed and whether they will lead to trade disputes.

今年将会有紧张,因为经济和政治气候和缺乏突破多哈谈判。会有分歧关于行动(而不是)的紧张。问题是这些分歧将如何管理和他们是否会导致贸易纠纷。

The default option is a significant increase in disputes, as the focus of the U.S. and its trading partners leads to protectionist and discriminatory policies. Most will lose in the long run if this happens. The challenge now is to analyze the difficulties that the multilateral trading system will face and develop strategies to limit the resulting harm and serve as stepping stones for resumed progress when the worldwide economic and political climate improves.

默认选项是纠纷大幅增加,美国和其贸易伙伴的关注导致贸易保护主义和歧视性政策。大部分将会失去从长远来看,如果发生这种情况。现在的挑战是,多边贸易体系将面临的困难分析,发展策略来限制造成的危害,作为恢复进展当垫脚石的全球经济和政治气候得到改善。

Historically, trade liberalization efforts have succeeded only in a healthy worldwide economic climate (the Uruguay Round negotiations creating the WTO in the early 1990s) or after an economic cataclysm (the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, or GATT, after World War II). At such times, governments and businesses focus on the horse trading necessary to achieve greater worldwide liberalization. The concept of giving in order to get–of reducing some of your trade barriers to secure reductions from others in areas of greater interest to you–is recognized and acted on. Those losing protection don’t like it, but the pro-liberalization forces are stronger.

从历史上看,贸易自由化的努力已经成功只在一个健康的全球经济气候(乌拉圭回合谈判创建世贸组织在1990年代初)或之后的经济灾难(关税和贸易总协定或关贸总协定,二战后)。在这种时候,政府和企业关注马交易需要实现更大的全球自由化。的概念给为了get-of减少你的一些贸易壁垒来保护减少从其他地区更大的兴趣you-is认识和行动。那些失去保护不喜欢它,但pro-liberalization力量更强。

By contrast, in problematic economic climates, fear of giving predominates. Politicians hear more from constituents condemning adverse effects of imports (and now globalization) on income and jobs than they do from those seeking to give or receive expanded market access. In the U.S. , this shift was apparent in the 2006 congressional elections. And it becomes more evident every day as signs of an economic slowdown grow. Bipartisan efforts to enact a stimulus package are welcome, but they are extremely unlikely to improve the trade policy picture.

相比之下,在经济气候问题,害怕给占了主导地位。政客们听到更多来自选民谴责进口不利影响(和现在的全球化)收入和就业比那些寻求给予或接收扩大市场准入。在美国,这种转变是在2006年的国会选举。每天,它变得更加明显随着经济放缓增长的迹象。两党共同努力制定经济刺激计划是受欢迎的,但他们非常可能改善贸易政策的图景。

At the same time, the prospects for a pro-trade congressional majority are nil, and, although much of the protectionist rhetoric of U.S. presidential candidates is just talk, the prospects for a trade-friendly administration are uncertain, at best. The systemic concern caused by a weakening economy is bolstered by particularized fear of a continued Chinese economic juggernaut. No amount of learned discourse, or administration exhortation about the economic benefits of further trade liberalization for the country as a whole, can counteract the present fearful mood in the U.S.

同时,促进贸易往来的国会多数的前景是零,,虽然美国总统候选人的保护主义言论只是说话,trade-friendly政府的前景是不确定的,在最好的。经济疲软造成的系统性的担忧提振了个具体持续中国经济力量的恐惧。再多的话语,或政府劝告的经济效益进一步的贸易自由化的国家作为一个整体,能抵消目前恐惧情绪在美国

Since the end of the Second World War, the U.S. has been described as the locomotive of world trade liberalization. A very solid argument can be made that GATT was created and the WTO evolved from it as a result of U.S. willingness to make the market-opening concessions necessary to drive other countries to agree to ever greater reductions of trade barriers and increases in market access opportunities.

第二次世界大战结束以来,美国一直被描述为世界贸易自由化的火车头。非常坚实的论点是,创建关贸总协定和世贸组织进化的结果是美国愿意做出必要的市场开放的让步来推动其他国家同意削减更多的贸易壁垒,提高市场准入机会。

Despite valiant efforts by the U.S. trade representative, Susan C. Schwab, the country now is stopped on a siding. The public does not accept pro-trade rhetoric, and the administration is unable to credibly promise trading partners that Congress will enact trade-liberalizing measures such as reducing agricultural support (enhancing the competitiveness of other agricultural exporters) or changing certain U.S. anti-dumping rules that most of our trading partners view as blatantly protectionist.

尽管英勇的努力,美国贸易代表苏珊·施瓦布(Susan Schwab)这个国家现在是停止支持。公众不接受贸易的言辞,和政府无法令人信服地向贸易伙伴保证,国会将通过开放贸易的措施,如减少农业支持(增强竞争力的其他农产品出口国)或改变某些美国反倾销规则,我们的贸易伙伴认为显而易见的保护主义。

A replacement locomotive is needed, but none has appeared. Neither the European Union, Japan nor any collection of countries has stepped forward to provide leadership in the WTO’s Doha negotiations. Instead, the goal seems to be to ensure that blame for failure is attributed to someone else. This is intensified by the inability of the administration to secure renewal of trade promotion authority (under which Congress agrees to an up or down vote on trade agreements, ceding its normal ability to condition

ratification on amendments to the negotiated text). Not surprisingly, many of our trading partners will use the absence of fast track as an excuse for not making concessions sought by the U.S. , asserting that Congress would demand additional concessions beyond those ultimately negotiated by the administration.

需要更换机车,但是都还没有出现。无论是欧盟、日本或任何国家走上前去集合提供领导在世贸组织多哈回合谈判。相反,我们的目标似乎是确保失败是由于别人的原因。这是强化政府无法获得更新的贸易促进授权(上下,在国会同意的表决贸易协定,放弃其正常能力条件批准修改谈判文本)。不足为奇的是,我们的许多贸易伙伴将使用缺乏快速通道为借口不让步寻求美国,声称国会将需求更多的让步最终超越政府协商。

What is to be done? One possibility is to hunker down and wait for better times. That would ensure at best a standstill, but more likely a worldwide increase in protectionism throughout 2008. There is a better option, though. This could be a bad year for forward-looking trade policy, but it need not be a disaster. Rather than ceding the field to those advocating policies of increased protection and unilateralism, the proponents of multilateral liberalization could seek to preserve the positive aspects of the Doha negotiations. Even though significant breakthroughs leading to a successful conclusion will not occur in 2008, the negotiations need not collapse.

要做的是什么?一种可能性是盘坐下来,等待更好的时机。这将确保在最好的停滞,但更有可能增加全球保护主义在2008年。不过,有一个更好的选择。这可能是一个前瞻性的贸易政策糟糕的一年,但它不需要是一个灾难。而不是放弃这一领域那些鼓吹政策增加的保护和单边主义,多边自由化的支持者可能寻求保护多哈谈判的积极方面。尽管重大突破导致成功在2008年不会发生,谈判不需要崩溃。

Experience during the Uruguay Round is instructive. There was a three-year period when none of the major negotiating parties was able to move on politically sensitive issues such as agriculture, services and textiles. Despite this high-level paralysis, all of the 15 subject matter negotiating groups continued to plug away. As a result, when worldwide political will re-emerged in mid-1993, most of the technical underbrush had been cleared away. A similar scenario could occur this year. The negotiating gains achieved to date could be preserved and steps taken to make technical progress where possible.

在乌拉圭回合谈判是有益的经验。有一个为期三年的时期没有一个主要的谈判各方能够继续政治敏感问题,如农业、服务和纺织品。尽管如此高层瘫痪,所有的15个主题谈判小组继续坚持不懈。结果,当全世界的政治将会再次出现在1993年代中期,大部分技术矮树丛被清除。今年可能会出现类似的情况。谈判迄今取得的成果可以保存并尽可能采取措施使技术进步。

On the domestic front, too, 2008 need not be a disaster. Here, the keys will be education and understanding.

在国内方面,2008不需要是一个灾难。这里的钥匙将教育和理解。

To avoid significant backsliding, those supporting multilateral liberalization must emerge from their foxholes and engage more actively and effectively in the globalization debate, educating politicians and opinion makers about the benefits of additional liberalization. At the same time, they must not ignore the dark side of globalization: It has not benefited all Americans. Many have legitimate concerns about their income and jobs.

为了避免重大倒退,那些支持多边自由化必须摆脱他们的散兵坑,更加积极和有效地参与全球化的辩论,教育政客和舆论制造商进一步自由化的好处。与此同时,他们必须不能忽视全球化的阴暗面:并非所有的美国人受益。许多人合法收入和就业的担忧。

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