13年5月GMAT写作预测机经韦晓亮

2013年5月GMAT写作

1服装店改家居用品店

【原始】百货商店经理说: 本地买衣服商店在8.1到10.30 期间利润降低,本地卖家居用品商店此期间利润增加。所以百货商店的衣服department要缩小,家居部门要扩大 【原题】黄金80题72

The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store.

“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.” 专卖店的商务经理的备忘录:

本地服装店报告说从8月1号到10月31号的3个月里他们的平均利润下降。销售家庭用品的商店却报告同期的平均利润上升。很明显,顾客正选择为他们的家里购买用品而不是买衣物。为了利用这个趋势,我们应该缩减我们的服装部规模而扩大家庭装饰和家务用品部

【参考思路】 1、 样本不足(三个月的时间太短不足以说明存在这样的趋势)

A period of three month is too short to draw a general conclusion of the overall trend. 2、时地全等all things are equal(过去三个月的趋势不代表未来也会如此)

The past three months' trend does not guarantee the same in the future. 3、可疑调查 survey is doubtful

Whether the reports from the local clothing stores and stores that sell products for the home are reliable or not are still open to doubt, thus making the author's suggestion groundless.

4、单因果错误Casual-relationship——有他因(服装销量降低和家居销量上升,是否存在必然的关系?可能是其他因素,如天气,偶发事件造成这种结果)。

5、无根据假设Gratuitous Assumption: A 不一定导致B(三个月的时间是否能说明一种趋势?)

2. Fleet Motor扩展国际市场

【原始】坐稳:讲一个汽车公司A (忘了名字)收购另一个汽车公司Fu,理由1是F汽车公司所在国家的人口在增加所以消费者增加,理由2是A公司用自己成功车型替代F公司的车型,3 不大记得了……感觉跟以往的坐稳逻辑不大相似……所以没写好

【考古】2012年10月JJ 25

V1、Fleet Motor公司股东给公司的什么人写信,说应该acquire另一个F开头的Auto公司,可以帮助FM公司某个G开头的国家开拓市场。FM之前在南美市场有一款很成功的车型,在G推广也一定成功。此外,要replace FA的marketing和另一个部门的员工 ,换成FM最好的员工 V2

AA: A letter to the shareholders of Fleet Motors: the CEO of Fleet Motors plans to acquire Futra Autos (a falling company) in the country of Galaxia, in order to expand Fleet Motor's international market and he/she believes that the rapidly increasing population in Galaxia will become future customer base of Fleet Motors. In addition, the management of Fleet Motors decides to retain the current workforce of Futra Autos and replace their management by the excellent Fleet Motor's employees. V3

In a statement issued to its shareholder issued by CEO of Fleet Motors(FM), the statement says that to meet the shareholders’ desire for international market expansion and increase in production capacity in the next decade, FM decides to buy Futura Autos (FA) in Galaxia planet, where FM currently doesn’t have any market presence. 然后说什么increase in population at Galaxia will expand the customer base for FM. FM can also save FA from bankruptcy by discontinue of its production line and manufacturing . FM also will replace the FA marketing and management team by current FM management to ensure a smooth transition.

【参考思路】

1. Gratuitous Assumption——无根据假设: A 不导致B 1V1&2:○G国人口增加不一定导致未来Fleet Motors的顾客增加,要考虑比如当地购买力或者国家政策导向 2○V3:收购并不一定能实现save auto from bankruptcy, 会做motor发动机的人不一定做的了auto的

2.单因果错误Casual-relationship——有他因(扩展international market的方式有很多种,acquire Futra Autos只是其中的一种,还可以直接建立分公司或者与当地企业合资,不一定非要采取收购,也不一定非要选择从G国进入)

3. 错误类比a false analogy(auto和motor的销售和管理存在差异,用优秀的motor的员工来管理和销售auto不一定合适)

4. 时地全等all things are equal(过去经验现在不一定适用,之前成功的车型不代表未来还能成功)

3.SC高中减课程会不会增加升学率,降低税费

【原始】作文:似乎之前哪里看到过的题目,某高中供学生选的课太多,然后有人拿另一个private school做比较说人家的课诺,才80几个,但升大学比例很多的诺,所以我们要把那些课减半!我们的升学率就上去了!很好写的一道题。。。。

【考古】AWA----CS(应该是这个代码)这所高校有100种不同的课程,但一个比较小的私人高校只有80种basic课程,这所小的私人高校进大学的比率比CS这所高校高。于是,减少CS高校的除basic课程以外的种类就可以提高升学率以及save tax。 V2 by behindtimely

作文 Consolidated High School。 我把机经全刷了一遍~

【原题】AA101

The following appeared in an editorial from a newspaper serving the town of Saluda:

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