1
楂樺帇閿呴攢鍞噺妯″瀷
鑳屾櫙鍜岄棶棰?/p>
楂樺帇閿呮槸褰撲粖瀹跺涵涓嶅彲鎴栫己鐨勭敤鍏蜂箣涓�锛?/p>
杩戝崄骞存潵楂樺帇閿呯殑浣跨敤寰?/p>
鍒颁簡鏋佸ぇ鐨勬櫘鍙婂洜姝ゅ叏鍥藉悇鍦板尯鐨勯珮鍘嬮攨閿�鍞噺涓庡勾淇卞锛?/p>
鎹祫鏂欐樉绀洪珮鍘嬮攨鐨?/p>
閿�鍞噺澧為暱瓒嬪娍涓庣缇ょ殑澧為暱杩囩▼鐩镐技锛?/p>
鍗冲湪寮�濮嬮樁娈甸珮鍘嬮攨鐨勯攢鍞噺鍛堟寚鏁板
闀匡紝
闅忕潃鍥芥皯缁忔祹鍙戝睍浠ュ強鍥芥皯闇�姹傜殑鏀瑰彉锛?/p>
楂樺帇閿呯殑閿�鍞噺鍙楀埌绀句細鍚勬柟闈㈠洜
绱犵殑褰卞搷锛?/p>
閿�鍞噺涓嶅啀鍛堟寚鏁板闀匡紝
鑰岃秼鍚戜竴涓笂闄愶紝
鍗抽攢鍞噺浼氬嚭鐜颁竴涓渶澶?/p>
鍊笺�?/p>
涓烘洿濂界殑浜嗚В楂樺帇閿呴攢鍞噺鐨勫闀胯秼鍔匡紝
鍒跺畾鐩稿簲鐨勯攢鍞鍒掞紝
鍙互瀵规湭鏉?/p>
鐨勯珮鍘嬮攨甯傚満璧峰埌涓�瀹氱殑璋冭妭浣滅敤锛?/p>
鍥犳瀵归珮鍘嬮攨鐨勯攢鍞噺澧為暱瓒嬪娍杩涜鍒嗘瀽鏄?/p>
蹇呰鐨勩�?/p>
琛?/p>
1
涓粰鍑虹殑鏄煇鍦板尯楂樺帇閿呯殑閿�鍞噺锛堝崟浣嶏細涓囧彴锛?/p>
锛屼负缁欏嚭姝や袱妯″瀷鐨?/p>
鎷熷悎缁撴灉锛岃鍙傝�冨涓嬮棶棰橈細
锛?/p>
1
锛?/p>
Logistic
澧為暱鏇茬嚎妯″瀷鏄竴涓彲绾挎�у寲妯″瀷鍚椼�傚鏋滅粰瀹?/p>
3000
飥?/p>
L
锛?/p>
鏄惁鏄竴涓彲绾挎�у寲妯″瀷锛屼娇鐢ㄧ嚎鎬у寲妯″瀷缁欏嚭鍙傛暟
a
鍜?/p>
k
鐨勪及璁″�笺�?/p>
锛?/p>
2
锛夊埄鐢紙
1
锛夋墍寰楃殑
a
鍜?/p>
k
鐨勪及璁″�煎拰
3000
飥?/p>
L
浣滀负
Logistic
妯″瀷鐨勬嫙鍚?/p>
鍒濆�硷紝瀵?/p>
Logistic
妯″瀷浣滈潪绾挎�у洖褰掋�?/p>
锛?/p>
3
锛夊彇鍒濆�?/p>
4
.
0
,
30
,
3000
)
0
(
)
0
(
)
0
(
飥?/p>
飥?/p>
飥?/p>
k
b
L
锛屾嫙鍚?/p>
Gompertz
妯″瀷銆傚苟涓?/p>
Logistic
妯″瀷鐨勭粨鏋滆繘琛屾瘮杈冦�?/p>
琛?/p>
1
鏌愬湴鍖洪珮鍘嬮攨閿�鍞噺
骞翠唤
t
y
骞翠唤
t
y
1981
0
43.65
1988
7
1238.75
1982
1
109.86
1989
8
1560.00
1983
2
187.21
1990
9
1824.29
1984
3
312.67
1991
10
2199.00
1985
4
496.58
1992
11
2438.89
1986
5
707.65
1993
12
2737.71
1987
6
960.25
鍒嗘瀽涓庡亣璁?/p>
璁伴珮鍘嬮攨鐨勯攢鍞噺涓?/p>
y
锛屼笌楂樺帇閿呴攢鍞噺鐩稿叧鐨勬椂闂翠负
t
锛岀敱甯傚満
缁忔祹鐨勮寰嬪彲鐭ワ紝
楂樺帇閿呯殑閿�鍞噺澧為暱瓒嬪娍涓庣缇ょ殑澧為暱杩囩▼鐩镐技锛?/p>
鍗冲湪寮�濮嬮樁
娈甸珮鍘嬮攨鐨勯攢鍞噺鍛堟寚鏁拌秼鍔垮闀匡紝
闅忕潃鍥芥皯缁忔祹鍙戝睍浠ュ強鍥芥皯闇�姹傜殑鏀瑰彉锛?/p>
楂?/p>
鍘嬮攨鐨勯攢鍞噺鍙楀埌绀句細鍚勬柟闈㈠洜绱犵殑褰卞搷锛?/p>
閿�鍞噺涓嶅啀鍛堟寚鏁板闀匡紝
鑰岃秼鍚戜竴涓?/p>
涓婇檺锛?/p>
鍗抽攢鍞噺浼氬嚭鐜颁竴涓渶澶у�艰涓?/p>
L
銆?/p>
鍥犳楂樺帇閿呯殑閿�鍞噺鐨勫闀胯秼鍔垮彲浠?/p>
鐢?/p>
Logistic
澧為暱鏇茬嚎妯″瀷鍜?/p>
Gompertz
澧為暱鏇茬嚎妯″瀷鏉ユ嫙鍚堛�?/p>
Logistic
澧為暱鏇茬嚎妯″瀷锛?/p>
kt
t
ae
L
y
飥?/p>
飥?/p>
飥?/p>
1
锛?/p>
1
锛?/p>