1
璁￠噺缁忔祹瀛﹂搴?/p>
璁＄畻涓庡垎鏋愰
锛堟瘡灏忛
10
鍒嗭級
1
锛庝笅琛ㄤ负鏃ユ湰鐨勬眹鐜囦笌姹借溅鍑哄彛鏁伴噺鏁版嵁锛?/p>
骞村害
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
X
Y
168
661
145
631
128
610
138
588
145
583
135
575
127
567
111
502
102
446
94
379
X:
骞村潎姹囩巼锛堟棩鍏?/p>
/
缇庡厓锛?/p>
Y:
姹借溅鍑哄彛鏁伴噺锛堜竾杈嗭級
闂锛?/p>
锛?/p>
1
锛夌敾鍑?/p>
X
涓?/p>
Y
鍏崇郴鐨勬暎鐐瑰浘銆?/p>
锛?/p>
2
锛夎绠?/p>
X
涓?/p>
Y
鐨勭浉鍏崇郴鏁般�傚叾涓?/p>
X
129.3
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
Y
554.2
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
2
X
X
4432.1
飪?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?
2
Y
Y
68113.6
飪?
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
飥?/p>
飥╋�?/p>
飥?/p>
X
X
Y
Y
飪?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
16195.4
锛?/p>
3
锛夐噰鐢ㄧ洿绾垮洖褰掓柟绋嬫嫙鍜屽嚭鐨勬ā鍨嬩负
藛
81.72
3.65
Y
X
飥?/p>
飥?/p>
t
鍊?/p>
1.2427
7.2797
R
2
=0.8688
F=52.99
瑙ｉ噴鍙傛暟鐨勭粡娴庢剰涔夈�?/p>
2
锛庡凡鐭ヤ竴妯″瀷鐨勬渶灏忎簩涔樼殑鍥炲綊缁撴灉濡備笅锛?/p>
i
i
藛
Y
=
101.4-4.78X
鏍囧噯宸?/p>
锛?/p>
45.2
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
1.53
锛?/p>
n=30
R
2
=0.31
鍏朵腑锛?/p>
Y
锛氭斂搴滃�哄埜浠锋牸锛堢櫨缇庡厓锛?/p>
锛?/p>
X
锛氬埄鐜囷紙
%
锛?/p>
銆?/p>
鍥炵瓟浠ヤ笅闂锛?/p>
锛?/p>
1
锛夌郴鏁扮殑绗﹀彿鏄惁姝ｇ‘锛屽苟璇存槑鐞嗙敱锛?/p>
锛?/p>
2
锛変负浠�涔堝乏杈规槸
i
藛
Y
鑰屼笉鏄?/p>
i
Y
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
3
锛夊湪姝ゆā鍨嬩腑鏄惁婕忎簡璇樊椤?/p>
i
u
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
4
锛夎妯″瀷鍙傛暟鐨勭粡娴庢剰涔夋槸浠�涔堛�?/p>
3
锛庝及璁℃秷璐瑰嚱鏁版ā鍨?/p>
i
i
i
C
=
Y
u
飦?/p>
飦?/p>
飥?/p>
飥?/p>
寰?/p>
i
i
藛
C
=
15
0.81
Y
飥?/p>
t
鍊?/p>
锛?/p>
13.1
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
18.7
锛?/p>
n=19
R
2
=0.81
鍏朵腑锛?/p>
C
锛氭秷璐癸紙鍏冿級
Y
锛氭敹鍏ワ紙鍏冿級
宸茬煡
0.025
(19)
2.0930
t
飥?/p>
锛?/p>
0.05
(19)
1.729
t
飥?/p>
锛?/p>
0.025
(17)
2.1098
t
飥?/p>
锛?/p>
0.05
(17)
1.7396
t
飥?/p>
銆?/p>
闂細
锛?/p>
1
锛夊埄鐢?/p>
t
鍊兼楠屽弬鏁?/p>
飦?/p>
鐨勬樉钁楁�э紙
伪
锛?/p>
0.05
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
2
锛夌‘瀹氬弬鏁?/p>
飦?/p>
鐨勬爣鍑嗗樊锛?/p>
锛?/p>
3
锛夊垽鏂竴涓嬭妯″瀷
鐨勬嫙鍚堟儏鍐点�?/p>
4
锛庡凡鐭ヤ及璁″洖褰掓ā鍨嬪緱
i
i
藛
Y
=81.7230
3.6541
X
飥?/p>
涓?/p>
2
X
X
4432.1
飪?
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
2
Y
Y
68113.6
飪?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
锛?/p>
姹傚垽瀹氱郴鏁板拰鐩稿叧绯绘暟銆?/p>
5
锛庢湁濡備笅琛ㄦ暟鎹?/p>
鏃ユ湰鐗╀环涓婃定鐜囦笌澶变笟鐜囩殑鍏崇郴
骞翠唤
鐗╀环涓婃定鐜囷紙
%
锛?/p>
P
澶变笟鐜囷紙
%
锛?/p>
U
1986
0.6
2.8
1987
0.1
2.8
1988
0.7
2.5
1989
2.3
2.3