鏁板涓庣粺璁″闄㈠疄楠屾姤鍛?/p>
闄紙绯伙級
锛氭暟瀛︿笌缁熻瀛﹀闄㈠鍙凤細濮撳悕锛?/p>
瀹為獙璇剧▼锛氳閲忕粡娴庡鎸囧鏁欏笀
:
瀹為獙绫诲瀷锛堥獙璇佹�с�佹紨绀烘�с�佺患鍚堟�с�佽璁℃�э級
锛氱患鍚堟�?/p>
瀹為獙鏃堕棿锛?/p>
2017
骞?/p>
4
鏈?/p>
5
鏃?/p>
涓�銆佸疄楠岃棰?/p>
澶氶噸鍏辩嚎鎬х殑璇婃柇鍙婂鐞?/p>
浜屻�佸疄楠岀洰鐨勫拰鎰忎箟
绗?/p>
8
鍛ㄧ粌涔犲閲嶅叡绾挎�?/p>
鍙宠〃鏄煇鍩庡競璐㈡斂鏀跺叆
rev
銆佺涓�銆佺浜屻�佺涓?/p>
浜т笟
gdp1
銆?/p>
gdp2
銆?/p>
gdp3
鐨勬湁鍏虫暟鎹�?/p>
1).
寤虹珛
rev
瀵?/p>
gdp1
锛?/p>
gdp2
锛?/p>
gdp3
鐨勫鍏冪嚎
鎬у洖褰掞紝
骞朵粠缁忔祹鍜屾暟鐞嗙粺璁′笂绠�瑕佽鏄庢ā鍨嬪瓨
鍦ㄧ潃鍝簺涓嶈冻銆?/p>
2).
鍐欏嚭
rev
锛?/p>
gdp1
锛?/p>
gdp2
锛?/p>
gdp3
鐨勭浉鍏崇郴鏁?/p>
鐭╅樀銆?/p>
3).
鍒╃敤鍒ゅ埆绯绘暟娉曞垽鏂ā鍨嬫槸鍚﹀瓨鍦ㄧ潃澶?/p>
閲嶅叡绾挎�с�?/p>
4).
鐢ㄩ�愭鍥炲綊鐨勬柟娉曟帓闄ゅ紩璧峰叡绾挎�х殑鍙?/p>
閲忥紝閲嶆柊寤虹珛澶氬厓鍥炲綊銆?/p>
5).
濡傛灉涓嶆兂鎺掗櫎鍙橀噺锛?/p>
閫氳繃缁忛獙锛?/p>
鍋囪锛?/p>
gdp1
瀵硅储鏀挎敹鍏ョ殑璐＄尞鏄?/p>
gdp3
鐨勪笁鍊嶏紝鑰屼笖
gdp2
涓庤储鏀挎敹鍏ユ槸瀵规暟绾挎�у叧绯汇�?/p>
閭ｄ箞璇峰缓绔?/p>
ln
锛?/p>
rev
锛?/p>
瀵癸紙
3gdp1+gdp3
锛夊強
ln
锛?/p>
gdp2
锛夌殑鍗婂鏁扮嚎鎬у洖
褰掓ā鍨嬶紝
鐪嬬湅妯″瀷鍦ㄧ粡娴庡拰鏁板涓婃槸鍚﹀悎鐞嗭紝
骞?/p>
浠庝腑浣犲緱鍒颁簡浠�涔堝惎绀猴紙鑷繁闅忔剰鍙戞尌锛?/p>
銆?/p>
涓夈�佽В棰樻�濊矾锛?/p>
eviews6
锛?/p>
1
銆佸缓绔嬪鍏冪嚎鎬у洖褰掞細
quick
鈥?/p>
estimate equation
鈥?/p>
锛?/p>
rev c gdp1 gdp2
gdp3
锛?/p>
骞翠唤
rev
gdp1
gdp2
gdp3
1983
6604
27235
26781
7106
1984
6634
26680
28567
10240
1985
6710
26762
31766
11912
1986
6823
33595
40062
14160
1987
8103
38510
52935
16960
1988
8578
41529
61337
18777
1989
8469
47994
67848
30498
1990
11118
65138
98946
39700
1991
16053
86983
112531
66960
1992
20221
105825
143545
92231
1993
27076
129136
223697
117031
1994
31888
138619
216161
151334
1995
35139
146637
305940
193573
1996
42436
149788
371066
227561
1997
56204
161800
426925
256684
1998
93828
162960
614341
372177
1999
130532
199519
821302
524562
2000
179063
246648
1121058
688567